JTWC Patrick Hoareau | Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

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95P north-northwest of Nadi/Fiji: tropical cyclone formation alert issued by the JTWC - 05/17/2019 - 18:53

Models: GFS hints at development whereas ECMWF and UKMO show no development https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publications:...

95P northeast of Vanuatu: may intensify a bit next 48 hours - 05/16/2019 - 23:56

The area is now MEDIUM for the next 24 hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous...

93W: near Guam, no development expected. 95P northwest of Fiji: might develop gradually after 24hours - 05/16/2019 - 12:09

95P: the european model shows it to be short-lived though https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous...

INVEST 93W is on the map east of Guam but is forecast to dissipate while tracking northward - 05/16/2019 - 07:26

The area is assessed as LOW for the next 24 hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publication: ...

Calm and dry over the Philippines. Nice frontal system over southwestern Australia - 05/16/2019 - 06:53

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publication:...

Philippines: below average rainfall still forecast next two weeks. No TC development forecast for the West Pacific and the Indian Ocean - 05/14/2019 - 21:37

The JTWC has issued the Final Warning for TC ANN(27P)

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast landfall near Coen shortly after 12hours as a 35knots TC - 05/14/2019 - 12:37

Center increasingly exposed north of flaring convection https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen in 24 hours as a 35knots cyclone - 05/14/2019 - 07:09

Satellite data depict an exposed but well defined center with flaring convection to the south https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) on a weakening trend, forecast landfall near Coen in 36 hours - 05/13/2019 - 19:22

Strong gradient between the cyclone and a surface high pressure system to the south depicted by Ascat https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen as a 45knots cyclone shortly after 36 hours - 05/13/2019 - 13:22

Flaring convection with the cyclonic circulation still well organized at the lower levels https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) is forecast to make landfall over Cape York near Coen in 48hours - 05/13/2019 - 08:02

High confidence in the forecast track https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications: ...

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) has probably peaked ( 130km/h gusts) , landfall forecast over Cape York shortly before 48hours - 05/12/2019 - 19:07

High confidence in the forecast track https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications: ...

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast to peak within 12/24hours and make landfall over Cape York shortly before 48hours - 05/12/2019 - 13:27

The cyclone has been intensifying above the initial JTWC forecast https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P): landfall over Cape York forecast shortly after 72hours - 05/12/2019 - 07:17

Intensity being hampered by a tongue of drier air from the north. https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications: ...

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) has formed, forecast to intensify next 24hours maybe faster than indicated - 05/12/2019 - 02:37

Low confidence in the intensity forecast https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Coral Sea: INVEST 94P likely to intensify next 24/48h and may take on subtropical characteristics - 05/11/2019 - 20:48

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert( TCFA ) issued by the JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

(4PM) Philippines: remnants of INVEST 90W to the east of Mindanao ( satellite animations ) - 05/11/2019 - 12:55

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

West Pacific: 92W : development unlikely next 48hours. Some models hint at some development after 72h - 05/11/2019 - 10:50

Southern Hemipshere: 94P may develop and might take on subtropical characteristics WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC INVEST 92W As of 06:00 UTC May 11, 2019: Location: 6.8°N 158.4°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt...

Timor Sea: 35knots Cyclone LILI(26S) should be weakening due to dry air in the atmosphere and land interaction with East Timor - 05/10/2019 - 19:04

Warning 6/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous related...

West Pacific: 94P could develop after 24hours while approaching east coast of Australia. 92W still under watch. - 05/10/2019 - 11:38

92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours despite models showing little development. https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...

Timor Sea: Cyclone LILI(26S) is weakening, maybe quickly next 12/24hours - 05/10/2019 - 08:04

Warning 4/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous related publications:...

South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) getting a little bit stronger, potential threat to East Timor with heavy rain and strong winds - 05/09/2019 - 21:22

Warning 2/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous related publications: ...

West Pacific: areas under watch north and south of the equator - 05/09/2019 - 15:59

92W: MEDIUM for the next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent...

South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) has formed near Timor, potential threat of strong winds and heavy rain to the island - 05/09/2019 - 12:33

Warning 1/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ TC LILI(26S) As of 06:00 UTC May 09, 2019: Location: 8.7°S 128.9°E Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Gusts: 45 kt...

2PM(PH), 06UTC: 90W near Palau: no longer suspect . 92W: models less aggressive but area still under close watch - 05/08/2019 - 11:34

90W is no longer on the map whereas 92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Related...

2 weeks outlook: MJO over the West Pacific and moving eastward. 92W likely to develop and approach the Guam area - 05/08/2019 - 02:25

93S and 94P are also likely to develop northwest and northeast of Australia https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook...

02AM(PH)/18UTC : 90W and 92W updated positions : 92W still likely to develop next 48/72hours - 05/08/2019 - 00:33

90W: LOW . 92W: MEDIUM https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Related publications:...

South Indian: INVEST 93S: development likely next 24hours - 05/07/2019 - 23:06

The area has been upgraded to HIGH for the next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ INVEST 93S As of 12:00 UTC May 07, 2019: Location: 6.4°S 129.2°E...

90W near Palau: not much expected next 48/72hours. 92W near Pohnpei: gradual development expected - 05/07/2019 - 11:14

92W is up-graded to MEDIUM for the next 24hours SATELLITE ANIMATION DOWN THE PAGE: PLEASE CLICK TO ANIMATE. https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous...

90W near Yap: little development expected at the moment. 92W: gradual intensification next 36/48hours - 05/06/2019 - 11:17

Still low chances of development next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publications:...

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