WESTERN PACIFIC: Invest 92W/SOUTH PACIFIC: Subtropical Storm 96P/EASTERN PACIFIC: Invest 93E//15@0730 UTC

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 161.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 940 NM 
EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 92W AS A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BURSTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET BY SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS LARGELY SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 171.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATTITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. EARLIER ASCAT 
DATA REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, SOUTH OF FIJI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 96P 
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN 
INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENVELOPS THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.