JTWC IS ISSUING 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 95S
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: SUBTROPICAL STORM 95S. ADVISORY ISSUED BY JTWC @ 11/0200 UTC
ABIO10 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/110200Z-111800ZJUN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 31.3S 50.5E, APPROXIMATELY 663 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND ELEVATED WINDS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, EVIDENT BY A 101909Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF 40KTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN EXTREMELY LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THE SYSTEM IS REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO THE POLAR FRONT JET (PFJ) BEING SPLIT ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. INVEST 95S IS IN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35+ KTS) AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
23-24C, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALL GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS LIFESPAN BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE PFJ. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/110200Z-111800ZJUN2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 31.3S 50.5E, APPROXIMATELY 663 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND ELEVATED WINDS IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY, EVIDENT BY A 101909Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF 40KTS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN EXTREMELY LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THE SYSTEM IS REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO THE POLAR FRONT JET (PFJ) BEING SPLIT ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. INVEST 95S IS IN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35+ KTS) AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
23-24C, OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALL GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS LIFESPAN BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE PFJ. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AI Model Track Forecasts
Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)
METEOSAT-9 5KM @ 11/0900 UTC
Storm Relative 16 km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery
