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WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity within 24 hours and be a Super Typhoon by 60 hours/EASTERN PACIFIC: Hurricane 07E(GENEVIEVE) Extreme Rapid Intensification from CAT 1 US to CAT 5 in 24 hours/27@1630 UTC



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 12W.  3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 93B AND 06E
JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 12W. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 93B AND 06E

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity within 24 hours and be a Super Typhoon by 60 hours/EASTERN PACIFIC: Hurricane 07E(GENEVIEVE) Extreme Rapid Intensification from CAT 1 US to CAT 5 in 24 hours/27@1630 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN). WARNING 3 ISSUED BY JTWC @ 27/1500 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity within 24 hours and be a Super Typhoon by 60 hours/EASTERN PACIFIC: Hurricane 07E(GENEVIEVE) Extreme Rapid Intensification from CAT 1 US to CAT 5 in 24 hours/27@1630 UTC

TC WARNING GRAPHIC


PROGNOSTIC REASONING


WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.6N 175.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 601 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LACK
OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRECLUDES A
DEFINITIVE ANALYSIS OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, THE
VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) SEEN IN THE EIR ARE STRUGGLING TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, 
INDICATIVE OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE CIMSS ANALYZED VALUES. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS 
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP EASTERLIES BASED ON THE LATEST CIRA DERIVED 
MOTION VECTOR (DMV) ANALYSIS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF LOW-TO-
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, PLACED NEAR THE CENTROID OF RECENT 
DVORAK POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE, BIASED TOWARDS THE HIGHER T3.0 FIX FROM PHFO AND THE 
CONGRUENT D-PRINT ESTIMATE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMAL FOR RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION (RI) TO EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), WITH 
MINIMAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, VERY WARM SSTS (29-30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF AN EXPANSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) COMPLEX TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 271140Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 271140Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 271140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (DOLPHIN) HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF A
LARGE STR TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AN
EXPANSIVE, DEEP-LAYER UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD
AND TAKE UP POSITION NEAR 30N 175E, INDUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE
STR PATTERN AND RESULTING IN A WEAKENING STEERING GRADIENT. IN 
RESPONSE, TS 12W WILL DECELERATE WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL WESTWARD 
TRACK. BY TAU 36, A SECOND STR AXIS CENTERED WEST OF HAWAII WILL 
BUILD WESTWARD, EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND 
CONNECTING WITH THE STR CENTER EAST OF JAPAN. THIS WILL PRESENT A 
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 
12W. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, REACHING ALL THE WAY 
DOWN TO 30N, WILL TRACK EAST OF JAPAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE 
FACTORS WILL INDUCE TS 12W TO TURN ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER 
TAU 36, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING 
INTENSITY, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OPTIMAL TO SUPPORT 
RI OR ERI. THE VORTEX MUST FULLY CONSOLIDATE AND SYMMETRIZE FIRST, 
WHICH IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY. ONCE VORTEX ALIGNMENT IS ACHIEVED, THE 
SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE A PERIOD OF ERI, EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON 
STRENGTH (130 KTS) BY TAU 60 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 140 KTS OR 
HIGHER BY TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY 
UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE HWRF AND HAFS-A EXPLICITLY PREDICT AN EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) BEGINNING IMMEDIATELY AFTER TAU 72, RESULTING 
IN BOTH A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND AN EXPANSION OF THE 
OUTER WIND FIELD. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING OF POSSIBLE ERCS AND 
THEIR STRUCTURAL IMPACTS ARE TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO RELIABLY 
PREDICT AT THIS POINT, AND SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS MINIMAL (70NM) UP TO TAU 72, WITH JGSM
AND GALWEM MARKING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE
ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INNER
GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS, CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL AI
(FNV3) AND ECMWF GUIDANCE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO 230NM, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A
DEPARTURE OF THE JGSM TRACKER TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED 
RANGE FORECAST. BY TAU 120, THE EXPERIMENTAL JTWC SUPER-ENSEMBLE 
SHOWS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, EXTENDING 
ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THE EXTENDED RANGE JTWC 
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE AI CONSENSUS TRACKER AND THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS MEAN, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE 
NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM-DERIVED COAMPS-TC AND BOTH DECAY 
SHIPS OUTPUTS, WHICH ARE SKEWED UNREALISTICALLY LOW DUE TO A LOSS OF 
ACCURATE SST INPUTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ALL DEPICT 
STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130-150 KTS. THE JTWC 
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL AI MODEL GUIDANCE, THE 
RIDE AND CTR1 RI AIDS, AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HWRF MODEL. 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY 
SURROUNDING THE TIMING, DURATION, AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL ERCS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

 

JTWC TREND


JTWC TREND




AI Model Track Forecasts


@ 1145 UTC


Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)



CENTRAL PACIFIC: HU 06E(FAUSTO). WARNING 35 ISSUED @ 27/1600 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity within 24 hours and be a Super Typhoon by 60 hours/EASTERN PACIFIC: Hurricane 07E(GENEVIEVE) Extreme Rapid Intensification from CAT 1 US to CAT 5 in 24 hours/27@1630 UTC


NHC TREND


NHC TREND


Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2026-07-27 03:51:05 UTC
Storm Name: EP062026 / FAUSTO
Storm ID: EP06
Storm Center Longitude: -142.740
Storm Center Latitude: 19.520
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 57.884
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 41.19
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 31.96
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 84.33
RMax (nmi): 12.00 - 92.00
 

EASTERN PACIFIC: HU 07E(GENEVIEVE). WARNING 13 ISSUED @ 27/1600 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity within 24 hours and be a Super Typhoon by 60 hours/EASTERN PACIFIC: Hurricane 07E(GENEVIEVE) Extreme Rapid Intensification from CAT 1 US to CAT 5 in 24 hours/27@1630 UTC


NHC TREND


NHC TREND


JMV FILE
0726072218  76N 934W  20
0726072300  77N 942W  20
0726072306  78N 950W  25
0726072312  79N 959W  25
0726072318  81N 969W  25
0726072400  83N 978W  25
0726072406  85N 990W  25
0726072412  87N1002W  30
0726072418  89N1012W  35
0726072500  93N1021W  45
0726072506  99N1029W  45
0726072512 105N1039W  50
0726072518 111N1050W  55
0726072600 118N1061W  65
0726072606 126N1076W  80
0726072612 132N1088W 100
0726072618 136N1099W 115
0726072700 144N1108W 130
0726072706 151N1117W 140
0726072712 157N1127W 135

Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2026-07-27 01:41:02 UTC
Storm Name: EP072026 / GENEVIEVE
Storm ID: EP07
Storm Center Longitude: -111.122
Storm Center Latitude: 14.549
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 50.769
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 125.85
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 127.79
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 117.52
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 115.84
RMax (nmi): 8.00 - 13.00


NORTH INDIAN/GULF OF BENGAL

WESTERN PACIFIC: TS 12W(DOLPHIN) forecast to reach Typhoon Intensity within 24 hours and be a Super Typhoon by 60 hours/EASTERN PACIFIC: Hurricane 07E(GENEVIEVE) Extreme Rapid Intensification from CAT 1 US to CAT 5 in 24 hours/27@1630 UTC


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, July 27th 2026 à 20:58