meteo





INVEST 94W: being subtropical and tracking close to Okinawa within the next 2 days



https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 26, 2019:

Location: 20.7°N 128.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 260200 COR
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 128.0E TO 31.2N 132.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 128.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.2N 126.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 128.2E, APPROXIMATELY
337 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 252117Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD,
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE NORTHEAST. A 251320Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWED WEAK,
DISORGANIZED WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BEST TRACK POSITION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE JET
LOCATED TO THE NORTH, AND WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM ALREADY LOOKS SUBTROPICAL
WITH A COMMA CLOUD STRUCTURE, CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST, ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND A WEAK TO NEUTRAL
WARM CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OKINAWA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A SHARP, DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING
INTO A REGION OF COOLER SSTS AND UNDER THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET,
FACILITATING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SO, WHILE 94W MAY DEVELOP A
STRONG WIND FIELD, WITH WINDS PARTICULARLY ENHANCED TO THE EAST DUE
TO GRADIENT FLOW, IT WILL NOT BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270200Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MULTIPLE ERRORS IN PARA 1
AND DISTANCE FROM KADENA AB IN PARA 2.
//
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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

0250UTC: COMMA CLOUD STRUCTURE, CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FNMOC
0250UTC: COMMA CLOUD STRUCTURE, CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FNMOC

00UTC
00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 26 Juin 2019 à 07:09