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20190522: tropical cyclone formation possible across the Eastern North Pacific next 2 weeks. Likely calm elsewhere

20190522: tropical cyclone formation possible across the Eastern North Pacific next 2 weeks. Likely calm elsewhere - 22/05/2019 - 10:25

No suspect areas mentioned by the JTWC right now
95P north-northwest of Nadi/Fiji: tropical cyclone formation alert issued by the JTWC

95P north-northwest of Nadi/Fiji: tropical cyclone formation alert issued by the JTWC - 17/05/2019 - 18:53

Models: GFS hints at development whereas ECMWF and UKMO show no development https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publications:...
95P northeast of Vanuatu: may intensify a bit next 48 hours

95P northeast of Vanuatu: may intensify a bit next 48 hours - 16/05/2019 - 23:56

The area is now MEDIUM for the next 24 hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous...
93W: near Guam, no development expected. 95P northwest of Fiji: might develop gradually after 24hours

93W: near Guam, no development expected. 95P northwest of Fiji: might develop gradually after 24hours - 16/05/2019 - 12:09

95P: the european model shows it to be short-lived though https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous...
INVEST 93W is on the map east of Guam but is forecast to dissipate while tracking northward

INVEST 93W is on the map east of Guam but is forecast to dissipate while tracking northward - 16/05/2019 - 07:26

The area is assessed as LOW for the next 24 hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publication: ...
Calm and dry over the Philippines. Nice frontal system over southwestern Australia

Calm and dry over the Philippines. Nice frontal system over southwestern Australia - 16/05/2019 - 06:53

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous publication:...
Philippines: below average rainfall still forecast next two weeks. No TC development forecast for the West Pacific and the Indian Ocean

Philippines: below average rainfall still forecast next two weeks. No TC development forecast for the West Pacific and the Indian Ocean - 14/05/2019 - 21:37

The JTWC has issued the Final Warning for TC ANN(27P)
Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast landfall near Coen shortly after 12hours as a 35knots TC

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast landfall near Coen shortly after 12hours as a 35knots TC - 14/05/2019 - 12:37

Center increasingly exposed north of flaring convection https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen in 24 hours as a 35knots cyclone

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen in 24 hours as a 35knots cyclone - 14/05/2019 - 07:09

Satellite data depict an exposed but well defined center with flaring convection to the south https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) on a weakening trend, forecast landfall near Coen in 36 hours

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) on a weakening trend, forecast landfall near Coen in 36 hours - 13/05/2019 - 19:22

Strong gradient between the cyclone and a surface high pressure system to the south depicted by Ascat https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen as a 45knots cyclone shortly after 36 hours

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen as a 45knots cyclone shortly after 36 hours - 13/05/2019 - 13:22

Flaring convection with the cyclonic circulation still well organized at the lower levels https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) is forecast to make landfall over Cape York near Coen in 48hours

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) is forecast to make landfall over Cape York near Coen in 48hours - 13/05/2019 - 08:02

High confidence in the forecast track https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications: ...
Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) has probably peaked ( 130km/h gusts) , landfall forecast over Cape York shortly before 48hours

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) has probably peaked ( 130km/h gusts) , landfall forecast over Cape York shortly before 48hours - 12/05/2019 - 19:07

High confidence in the forecast track https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications: ...
Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast to peak within 12/24hours and make landfall over Cape York shortly before 48hours

Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast to peak within 12/24hours and make landfall over Cape York shortly before 48hours - 12/05/2019 - 13:27

The cyclone has been intensifying above the initial JTWC forecast https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P): landfall over Cape York forecast shortly after 72hours

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P): landfall over Cape York forecast shortly after 72hours - 12/05/2019 - 07:17

Intensity being hampered by a tongue of drier air from the north. https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications: ...
Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) has formed, forecast to intensify next 24hours maybe faster than indicated

Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) has formed, forecast to intensify next 24hours maybe faster than indicated - 12/05/2019 - 02:37

Low confidence in the intensity forecast https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Coral Sea: INVEST 94P likely to intensify next 24/48h and may take on subtropical characteristics

Coral Sea: INVEST 94P likely to intensify next 24/48h and may take on subtropical characteristics - 11/05/2019 - 20:48

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert( TCFA ) issued by the JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
(4PM) Philippines: remnants of INVEST 90W to the east of Mindanao ( satellite animations )

(4PM) Philippines: remnants of INVEST 90W to the east of Mindanao ( satellite animations ) - 11/05/2019 - 12:55

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
West Pacific: 92W : development unlikely next 48hours. Some models hint at some development after 72h

West Pacific: 92W : development unlikely next 48hours. Some models hint at some development after 72h - 11/05/2019 - 10:50

Southern Hemipshere: 94P may develop and might take on subtropical characteristics WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC INVEST 92W As of 06:00 UTC May 11, 2019: Location: 6.8°N 158.4°E Maximum Winds: 15 kt...
Timor Sea: 35knots Cyclone LILI(26S) should be weakening due to dry air in the atmosphere and land interaction with East Timor

Timor Sea: 35knots Cyclone LILI(26S) should be weakening due to dry air in the atmosphere and land interaction with East Timor - 10/05/2019 - 19:04

Warning 6/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous related...
West Pacific: 94P could develop after 24hours while approaching east coast of Australia. 92W still under watch.

West Pacific: 94P could develop after 24hours while approaching east coast of Australia. 92W still under watch. - 10/05/2019 - 11:38

92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours despite models showing little development. https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent publications:...
Timor Sea: Cyclone LILI(26S) is weakening, maybe quickly next 12/24hours

Timor Sea: Cyclone LILI(26S) is weakening, maybe quickly next 12/24hours - 10/05/2019 - 08:04

Warning 4/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous related publications:...
South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) getting a little bit stronger, potential threat to East Timor with heavy rain and strong winds

South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) getting a little bit stronger, potential threat to East Timor with heavy rain and strong winds - 09/05/2019 - 21:22

Warning 2/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous related publications: ...
West Pacific: areas under watch north and south of the equator

West Pacific: areas under watch north and south of the equator - 09/05/2019 - 15:59

92W: MEDIUM for the next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Recent...
South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) has formed near Timor, potential threat of strong winds and heavy rain to the island

South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) has formed near Timor, potential threat of strong winds and heavy rain to the island - 09/05/2019 - 12:33

Warning 1/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ TC LILI(26S) As of 06:00 UTC May 09, 2019: Location: 8.7°S 128.9°E Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Gusts: 45 kt...
2PM(PH), 06UTC: 90W near Palau: no longer suspect . 92W: models less aggressive but area still under close watch

2PM(PH), 06UTC: 90W near Palau: no longer suspect . 92W: models less aggressive but area still under close watch - 08/05/2019 - 11:34

90W is no longer on the map whereas 92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Related...
2 weeks outlook: MJO over the West Pacific and moving eastward. 92W likely to develop and approach the Guam area

2 weeks outlook: MJO over the West Pacific and moving eastward. 92W likely to develop and approach the Guam area - 08/05/2019 - 02:25

93S and 94P are also likely to develop northwest and northeast of Australia https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook...
02AM(PH)/18UTC : 90W and 92W updated positions : 92W still likely to develop next 48/72hours

02AM(PH)/18UTC : 90W and 92W updated positions : 92W still likely to develop next 48/72hours - 08/05/2019 - 00:33

90W: LOW . 92W: MEDIUM https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Related publications:...
South Indian: INVEST 93S: development likely next 24hours

South Indian: INVEST 93S: development likely next 24hours - 07/05/2019 - 23:06

The area has been upgraded to HIGH for the next 24hours https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ INVEST 93S As of 12:00 UTC May 07, 2019: Location: 6.4°S 129.2°E...
90W near Palau: not much expected next 48/72hours. 92W near Pohnpei: gradual development expected

90W near Palau: not much expected next 48/72hours. 92W near Pohnpei: gradual development expected - 07/05/2019 - 11:14

92W is up-graded to MEDIUM for the next 24hours SATELLITE ANIMATION DOWN THE PAGE:  PLEASE CLICK TO ANIMATE. https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.meteo974.re/ Previous...
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