meteo





INVEST 94W: likely to intensify a bit next 48hours while tracking close to Okinawa


The area is now HIGH for the next 24hours


TCFA ISSUED BY THE JTWC
TCFA ISSUED BY THE JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 25, 2019:

Location: 18.2°N 126.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 250200
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 126.8E TO 25.1N 127.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
126.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.4N 128.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY
490 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 242130Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OKINAWA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL
LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHARP, DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

06UTC
06UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 25 Juin 2019 à 07:24