meteo





Invest 94W: slow development possible next 2 to 4 days with a northwestward track expected


The area is LOW for the next 24 hours


The area is LOW for the next 24 hours
The area is LOW for the next 24 hours
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 18, 2019:

Location: 5.9°N 137.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.1N 139.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 180002Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 180043Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS AND SOME ISOLATED
20 KNOT WINDS NEAR CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT
30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH GFS, NAVGEM,
UKMET, AND ECMWF INDICATING SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT TWO
TO FOUR DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

 

GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 94W
GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 94W

GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 94W
GUIDANCE FOR INVEST 94W

00UTC
00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 18 Juin 2019 à 10:32