meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) meandering, intensity being capped due to dry air entrainment


Warning 15/JTWC


TC VAYU(02A) IS A CATEGORY 2 US SYSTEM
TC VAYU(02A) IS A CATEGORY 2 US SYSTEM
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 14, 2019:

Location: 20.9°N 68.5°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 68.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AND THE EARLIER EYE HAS REDUCED TO A DIMPLE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ON THE LOWER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
MARGINAL CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS BEING OFFSET BY LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INTENSITY
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ERODES THE SYSTEM. AS TC VAYU WEAKENS, LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN. AFTER THE TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. ONCE
OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED TO THE NORTH OF, AND WITH A TIGHTER
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE CONSENSUS. THE TRACK IS HEDGED IN
ORDER TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM WHICH, HAD CONSISTENTLY
DEPICTED A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO
THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN THE FORECAST,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN
 

WARNING 15/JTWC
WARNING 15/JTWC


0117UTC DMSP US
0117UTC DMSP US
 
           

0134UTC DMSP US
0134UTC DMSP US


0148UTC
0148UTC

00UTC
00UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 14 Juin 2019 à 08:32