Arabian Sea: TC VAYU(02A) now a category 1 US, intensifying with landfall as a strong category 2 forecast just after 36h


Landfall forecast between Diu and Porbandar/Gujarat


WARNING 5: TC 02A IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 US
WARNING 5: TC 02A IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 US
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 11, 2019:

Location: 16.0°N 70.8°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE, SMALL EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 110816Z
AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A COMPACT CORE, APPROXIMATELY 90NM
DIAMETER, WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE EYE STRUCTURE
AND ADT VALUES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (30C). TC 02A IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER INDIA. AFTER
TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR
AND A BUILDING STR OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STALL SCENARIO OVER NORTHWEST INDIA
OR JUST OFFSHORE, HOWEVER, NVGM AND AEMN INDICATE AN UNLIKELY
WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW.
THE 11/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF
THE SYSTEM TRACKING BACK OVER WATER WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IT
STALLING OVER NORTHWEST INDIA AND DISSIPATING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
ARE NO SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKING THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY WESTWARD. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR SHORTLY AFTER 36H AS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR SHORTLY AFTER 36H AS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 US

1341UTC: THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS BEEN IMPROVING RAPIDLY.
1341UTC: THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS BEEN IMPROVING RAPIDLY.

1345UTC
1345UTC

0817UTC: BUILDING EYE FEATURE
0817UTC: BUILDING EYE FEATURE


GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A

GUIDANCE
GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 11 Juin 2019 à 18:06