meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) is forecast to weaken gradually and make landfall near the India/Pakistan border after 72hours


Warning 16/JTWC


CATEGORY 2 US BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE LANDFALL AFTER 72H
CATEGORY 2 US BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE LANDFALL AFTER 72H
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 14, 2019:

Location: 20.8°N 68.1°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 961 mb
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION WITH WELL-ORGANIZED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
INTERMITTENT CENTRAL DIMPLE OR CLOUD-FILLED RAGGED EYE. A 140444Z
AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS NOT COMPLETELY
CLOSED AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE
FEATURE AND MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85
KT, BASED ON LOWERING FINAL T DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF
T5.0 (90 KTS) AND T4.5 (77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MARGINAL CONDITIONS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IS BEING OFFSET BY LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
BUT WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA AND A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ERODES THE
SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WIDEN THE BREAK
BETWEEN THE TWO STRS. THAT, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
THAT WILL STEER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM TO
MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN. AFTER THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER BEFORE TAU 96. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW THE RECURVE
OCCURRING AROUND TAU 48, BUT GALWEM AND UKMET BRING THE SYSTEM MORE
WESTWARD BEFORE BEGINNING THE RECURVE AND ARE WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHEREAS ECMWF AND GFS START THE RECURVE FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND ARE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED EAST OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.  DUE
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN THE FORECAST,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

0807UTC
0807UTC

07UTC
07UTC

06UTC
06UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 14 Juin 2019 à 13:22