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Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months


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Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months based on 1979-2021 best track data records and NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Warm colors (red hue) represent increased activity during El Niño events and cool colors (blue hue) represent increased activity during La Niña events.



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Saturday, December 6th 2025 à 11:32
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3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//08/11/26

WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN) CAT 1 US landfall south of TAIZHOU/CHINA/TS 14W(CHAN-HOM)/TS 13W(PEILOU)/TCFA for Invest 98W//09@1030 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN) CAT 2 US, the pinhole eye scrapes the coast of NW OKINAWA,landfall in CHINA forecast in approx 60h/TS 14W(CHAN HOM)/Invests 97W & 98W//07@1030 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN) down from CAT4 US to CAT 1 in 36h, gradually approaching OKINAWA/TS 13W(KUJIRA)/Invest 96W//05@2200 UTC

WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN) temporarily back to CAT 4 US with the unexpected inner core re-consolidation/Invest 94W//04@1000 UTC