meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) still "good-looking" but expected to weaken rapidly after 24hours


Warning 20/JTWC


CATEGORY 1 US BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER 24H
CATEGORY 1 US BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER 24H
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 15, 2019:

Location: 20.6°N 67.2°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 67.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150202Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED
LLCC WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER, A 150538Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). BASED ON THE RECENT
WEAKENING TREND INDICATED IN IMAGERY, A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
4.0/4.5 (65/77 KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES OF 66-74 KNOTS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER
TAU 12, TC VAYU IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, TC
02A SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. NEAR TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND
RADII CONSENSUS, INCORPORATING THE EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

0715UTC: STILL RATHER GOOD-LOOKING ON VISIBLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
0715UTC: STILL RATHER GOOD-LOOKING ON VISIBLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW

 

06UTC
06UTC

0538UTC: NORTHERN QUADRANT SUFFERING FROM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
0538UTC: NORTHERN QUADRANT SUFFERING FROM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

0423UTC: STRONGER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
0423UTC: STRONGER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 15 Juin 2019 à 12:52