meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) is forecast to weaken rapidly from now on


Warning 23/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 16, 2019:

Location: 21.1°N 65.3°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 65.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ACCORDING TO A 152236Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW/ADT AND
T3.0 FROM KNES. SATCON ESTIMATE OF 78 KNOTS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH,
GIVEN THE DISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (30 TO 31 DEGREES C), TC 02A CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST (30 TO 35 KNOTS)
IMPARTED BY THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. TC 02A HAS BEGUN A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST, AND AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
SHALLOW, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLIES, AND THE LLCC SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AS THE LLCC BECOMES DECOUPLED WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION, CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT OVERCOMES THE CIRCULATION. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 48, WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING OVER WATER PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

0040UTC: CENTER IS INCREASINGLY EXPOSED DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
0040UTC: CENTER IS INCREASINGLY EXPOSED DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

00UTC
00UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 16 Juin 2019 à 07:04