meteo





Arabian Sea: rapidly intensifying cyclone VAYU(02A) could reach category 2 US within 36hours


Warning 3/JTWC


WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 11, 2019:

Location: 14.7°N 70.6°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 70.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 102310Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS EXCELLENT BANDING AND A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A DVORAK CI
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED ALLOWING THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER INDIA. TC 02A
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND INCREASE TO AN
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND TAU 36, TC 02A WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS
TO INCREASE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL THEN TURN THE REMAINING LLCC TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. NAVGEM STILL INDICATES A SHARP WESTWARD TURN
WHILE UKMET SHOWS A NORTHWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE
SPREAD BETWEEN NAVGEM AND UKMET IS 655 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN


0050UTC: MICROWAVE DEPICTS CLEAR-CUT CENTER
0050UTC: MICROWAVE DEPICTS CLEAR-CUT CENTER

0130UTC
0130UTC

 

00UTC
00UTC

GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A

GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 11 Juin 2019 à 08:09