meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) slow-moving, forecast to turn northeast after 36h and weaken markedly, landfall near India/Pakistan border after 72h


Warning 17/JTWC


DOWNGRADED TO A CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE
DOWNGRADED TO A CATEGORY 1 CYCLONE
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 14, 2019:

Location: 20.8°N 68.3°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 965 mb
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 68.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIMINISHING AREA OF CONVECTION LARGELY DISPLACED
TO ONE SIDE OF THE INCREASINGLY ELONGATED, RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT OCCASIONALLY WRAPS AROUND AND
ENCLOSES THE CENTER. A 141124Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE
EYE, UPON WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KTS, BASED ON
LOWERING FINAL T DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF T5.0 (90
KTS) AND T4.0 (65 KTS). A 141145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 80 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM
IS EXPERIENCING DECLINING CONDITIONS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VALUES, RESULTING
IN UNRAVELING ORGANIZATION. GOOD BUT WEAKENING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SUSTAINING THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. TC 02A HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BUT CONTINUES
TO DRIFT WESTWARD IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OVER INDIA AND A STR BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY MAY MAINTAIN
IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12.
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WIDEN THE BREAK BETWEEN THE
TWO STRS. THAT, ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES, WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 36. AFTER THE
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE INDIA-PAKISTAN BORDER BEFORE TAU
96. ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. MOST
MODELS SHOW THE RECURVE OCCURRING AROUND TAU 36, BUT GALWEM AND
UKMET BRING THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD BEFORE BEGINNING THE RECURVE,
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHEREAS ECMWF AND GFS START THE
RECURVE FURTHER TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED EAST OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS, AND IS
SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO THE SLOWER RECENTLY OBSERVED TRACK
SPEED.  DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHARP TURN IN
THE FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 17/JTWC
WARNING 17/JTWC

1246UTC
1246UTC

 

12UTC
12UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 14 Juin 2019 à 20:48