meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) is now a disorganized system and weakening rapidly


Warning 25/JTWC


Intensity is forecast to fall below 35knots after 24hours
Intensity is forecast to fall below 35knots after 24hours
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 16, 2019:

Location: 20.5°N 65.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG (30-40 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 161221Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
2.7 (APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS) AND IS HEDGED BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 3.0/3.5 BASED ON THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 02A
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. TC 02A SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 DUE TO STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND RADII CONSENSUS,
INCORPORATING THE EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

1417UTC: EXPOSED CENTER AWAY FROM CONVECTION
1417UTC: EXPOSED CENTER AWAY FROM CONVECTION

12UTC
12UTC

1154UTC
1154UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 16 Juin 2019 à 19:51