meteo





INVEST 94W: may develop into a subtropical cyclone in apprx 72hours


The area is MEDIUM for the next 24hours


INVEST 94S IS MEDIUM ONCE AGAIN
INVEST 94S IS MEDIUM ONCE AGAIN
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 94W
As of 06:00 UTC Jun 24, 2019:

Location: 17.7°N 127.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 240600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY
594 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 240115Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLC. 94W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY LOW-TO-MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 94W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INTENSIFYING IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS LIKELY DEVELOPING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW. NAVGEM IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER, SHOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 24 Juin 2019 à 11:32