TC VAYU(02A) IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE WITH TOP GUSTS APPROACHING 200KM/H NEAR THE CENTER.
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NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea
Location: 17.6°N 70.2°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 70.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A LARGE CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 112256Z SSMIS 37 AND 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEING OFFSET BY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR OVER INDIA AND A SECOND STR
POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT IN THE LATER TAUS JUST WEST
OF NORTHERN INDIA. THE PRINCIPAL OUTLIER REMAINS THE NAVGEM MODEL
WHOSE SOLUTION TURNS THE SYSTEM DUE WEST AROUND TAU 12 WHILE THE
REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE
NAVGEM SCENARIO REMAINS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS,
WHICH IT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea
Location: 17.6°N 70.2°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 70.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A LARGE CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 112256Z SSMIS 37 AND 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT SHOW A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEING OFFSET BY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STR OVER INDIA AND A SECOND STR
POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT IN THE LATER TAUS JUST WEST
OF NORTHERN INDIA. THE PRINCIPAL OUTLIER REMAINS THE NAVGEM MODEL
WHOSE SOLUTION TURNS THE SYSTEM DUE WEST AROUND TAU 12 WHILE THE
REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 36. THE
NAVGEM SCENARIO REMAINS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW. TC VAYU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS,
WHICH IT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU
120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN
FORECAST TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO PORBANDAR IN 36H
WARNING 7/JTWC
0216UTC: MICROWAVE DEPICTING RATHER GOOD ORGANISATION
0046UTC: IMPRESSIVE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE
0201UTC F17. DMSP US
00UTC
GUIDANCE: TRACK AND INTENSITY
TRACK GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
