CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETIN ON 01W(WUTIP)
SOUTH CHINA SEA: TYPHOON 01W(WUTIP). 14/00UTC ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY
0125060318 67N1411E 15
0125060400 69N1406E 15
0125060406 72N1401E 15
0125060412 77N1392E 15
0125060418 88N1377E 15
0125060500 101N1362E 15
0125060506 107N1357E 15
0125060512 110N1349E 15
0125060518 119N1327E 15
0125060600 131N1303E 15
0125060606 136N1280E 15
0125060612 138N1262E 15
0125060618 134N1264E 15
0125060700 133N1265E 15
0125060706 135N1265E 15
0125060712 143N1259E 15
0125060718 148N1246E 15
0125060800 152N1233E 15
0125060806 155N1222E 15
0125060812 160N1210E 15
0125060818 163N1192E 15
0125060900 164N1173E 15
0125060906 163N1168E 15
0125060912 159N1160E 15
0125060918 155N1155E 15
0125061000 152N1148E 20
0125061006 154N1142E 20
0125061012 152N1141E 25
0125061018 152N1143E 30
0125061100 162N1139E 30
0125061106 164N1124E 30
0125061112 163N1114E 35
0125061118 165N1109E 40
0125061200 171N1102E 45
0125061206 173N1098E 50
0125061212 174N1093E 50
0125061218 177N1090E 55
0125061300 182N1086E 60
0125061306 186N1083E 60
0125061312 188N1084E 55
0125061318 197N1089E 55
0125061400 203N1091E 65
0125060400 69N1406E 15
0125060406 72N1401E 15
0125060412 77N1392E 15
0125060418 88N1377E 15
0125060500 101N1362E 15
0125060506 107N1357E 15
0125060512 110N1349E 15
0125060518 119N1327E 15
0125060600 131N1303E 15
0125060606 136N1280E 15
0125060612 138N1262E 15
0125060618 134N1264E 15
0125060700 133N1265E 15
0125060706 135N1265E 15
0125060712 143N1259E 15
0125060718 148N1246E 15
0125060800 152N1233E 15
0125060806 155N1222E 15
0125060812 160N1210E 15
0125060818 163N1192E 15
0125060900 164N1173E 15
0125060906 163N1168E 15
0125060912 159N1160E 15
0125060918 155N1155E 15
0125061000 152N1148E 20
0125061006 154N1142E 20
0125061012 152N1141E 25
0125061018 152N1143E 30
0125061100 162N1139E 30
0125061106 164N1124E 30
0125061112 163N1114E 35
0125061118 165N1109E 40
0125061200 171N1102E 45
0125061206 173N1098E 50
0125061212 174N1093E 50
0125061218 177N1090E 55
0125061300 182N1086E 60
0125061306 186N1083E 60
0125061312 188N1084E 55
0125061318 197N1089E 55
0125061400 203N1091E 65
WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 14/03UTC BY JTWC/ CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO GET IT ANIMATED AND ENLARGED
WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 109.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST
PART COLLAPSED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS TYPHOON (TY) 01W
(WUTIP) MOVED AWAY FROM HAINAN AND TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF
CHINA. BUT WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO TIGHTEN UP, AND IS
NOW VERY WELL-DEFINED. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM CMA SHOWS A 15NM
EYE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE
SMALL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE RADAR, OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH VERY
WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP TROF AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING THE VIETNAM-CHINA
BORDER REGION, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SHORT TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND FLOW DISRUPTION
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND, ARE CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTORS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 132000Z
CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 140020Z
CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 140020Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 131837Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 132300Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORWARD SPEED SHOULD PICK UP STEADILY
AS THE TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MOVES CLOSER AND TIGHTENS UP
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROF AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
LANDFALL ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BEIBU GULF, TO THE
WEST OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN CONTINUE FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH 36. IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ONE LAST GASP OF
INTENSIFICATION UP ITS SLEEVE, AS THE LATEST MSI SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING UPSHEAR OF THE LLCC. THUS, A SHORT BURST OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND, WILL BE EXTREMELY SHORT-LIVED. ONCE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE ROUGH
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH NONE OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING ANYTHING
OTHER THAN STEADY WEAKENING FROM TAU 00. THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS TOO TEMPORALLY LIMITED TO
BE CAPTURED IN THE MODEL DATA. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER LANDFALL, WITH
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 109.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST
PART COLLAPSED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS TYPHOON (TY) 01W
(WUTIP) MOVED AWAY FROM HAINAN AND TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF
CHINA. BUT WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO TIGHTEN UP, AND IS
NOW VERY WELL-DEFINED. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM CMA SHOWS A 15NM
EYE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE
SMALL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE RADAR, OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH VERY
WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP TROF AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING THE VIETNAM-CHINA
BORDER REGION, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SHORT TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND FLOW DISRUPTION
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND, ARE CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTORS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 132000Z
CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 140020Z
CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 140020Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 131837Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 132300Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORWARD SPEED SHOULD PICK UP STEADILY
AS THE TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MOVES CLOSER AND TIGHTENS UP
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROF AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
LANDFALL ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BEIBU GULF, TO THE
WEST OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN CONTINUE FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH 36. IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ONE LAST GASP OF
INTENSIFICATION UP ITS SLEEVE, AS THE LATEST MSI SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING UPSHEAR OF THE LLCC. THUS, A SHORT BURST OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND, WILL BE EXTREMELY SHORT-LIVED. ONCE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE ROUGH
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH NONE OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING ANYTHING
OTHER THAN STEADY WEAKENING FROM TAU 00. THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS TOO TEMPORALLY LIMITED TO
BE CAPTURED IN THE MODEL DATA. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER LANDFALL, WITH
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
TC WARNING GRAPHIC
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)
Model Diagnostic Plot
14/0230UTC SATELLITE BULLETIN
TPPN10 PGTW 140239
A. TYPHOON 01W (WUTIP)
B. 14/0230Z
C. 20.49N
D. 109.32E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .9 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5.MET AGREES.PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT
A. TYPHOON 01W (WUTIP)
B. 14/0230Z
C. 20.49N
D. 109.32E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .9 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5.MET AGREES.PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO PT.
INTENSITY ESTIMATE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BRYANT
