meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) category 2 US forecast to track more than 100km to the west of Porbandar


Warning 11/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 13, 2019:

Location: 20.2°N 69.3°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 961 mb
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 90-110 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 122111Z AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5-
T5.0 (77-90 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DRY AIR
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. TC 02A IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS ANOTHER STR OVER
SAUDI ARABIA BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. THE VWS SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY
AS THE CYCLONE TURNS WESTWARD, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE THE CONTINUED HINDRANCE OF DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST. AROUND TAU 48, INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
AND EVENTUALLY CAUSE A SHARP TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (AROUND TAU
96). BY TAU 120, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD TOWARD OMAN. BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//

FORECAST TO TRACK MORE THAN 100KM TO THE WEST OF PORBANDAR
FORECAST TO TRACK MORE THAN 100KM TO THE WEST OF PORBANDAR

INTENSITY FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STEADY NEXT 48H
INTENSITY FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS STEADY NEXT 48H

0147UTC US DMSP
0147UTC US DMSP

014UTC US DMSP
014UTC US DMSP

00UTC
00UTC

18UTC
18UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF IS NOW AGGRESSIVE AFTER 24H
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HWRF IS NOW AGGRESSIVE AFTER 24H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 13 Juin 2019 à 07:55