STILL ASSESSED AS A CATEGORY 1 BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER 24H
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea
Location: 20.7°N 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 971 mb
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 66.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151106Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE WIND RADII
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 150539Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND INDICATED IN IMAGERY,
A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77 KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF 66-72 KNOTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 12, TC VAYU IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, TC 02A SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NEAR TAU 54, THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. FORECAST WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND RADII CONSENSUS, INCORPORATING THE
EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea
Location: 20.7°N 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 971 mb
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 66.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151106Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE WIND RADII
ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 150539Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND INDICATED IN IMAGERY,
A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77 KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF 66-72 KNOTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 12, TC VAYU IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTER TAU 24, TC 02A SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NEAR TAU 54, THE SYSTEM
WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. FORECAST WIND RADII
ARE BASED ON THE RVCN WIND RADII CONSENSUS, INCORPORATING THE
EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z.//
NNNN
1314UTC
1207UTC
12UTC
09UTC. KOBUS/PH
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
