FORECAST TRACK REMAINING AT MORE THAN 100KM TO THE INDIAN COASTLINE
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea
Location: 20.5°N 69.2°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EMERGING RAGGED EYE AND WELL ORGANIZED
SPIRAL BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS IN LINE WITH
THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND
BELOW THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). A 130300Z OBSERVATION
FROM THE SHORE OF INDIA, 76NM AWAY, REPORTED 19 KTS AND 994 MB. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE WEST AND WILL LIMIT FUTURE INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 36,
INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MOST MODELS, SUCH AS ECMWF, GFS, AND UKMET,
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SO THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO STEERING BY LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN, ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THIS SHARP TURN AND HOW QUICKLY THEY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE STR BUILDING IN TO ITS NORTH,
RESULTING IN A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. IN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. COAMPS-
GFS AND HWRF PREDICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-
TERM, BUT BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS 90 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGINS THE WEAKENING TREND.
BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea
Location: 20.5°N 69.2°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EMERGING RAGGED EYE AND WELL ORGANIZED
SPIRAL BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS IN LINE WITH
THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) AND
BELOW THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS). A 130300Z OBSERVATION
FROM THE SHORE OF INDIA, 76NM AWAY, REPORTED 19 KTS AND 994 MB. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR IS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE WEST AND WILL LIMIT FUTURE INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER INDIA.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS
ANOTHER STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. AROUND TAU 36,
INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MOST MODELS, SUCH AS ECMWF, GFS, AND UKMET,
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SO THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO STEERING BY LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN, ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THIS SHARP TURN AND HOW QUICKLY THEY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE STR BUILDING IN TO ITS NORTH,
RESULTING IN A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. IN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. COAMPS-
GFS AND HWRF PREDICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-
TERM, BUT BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS 90 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGINS THE WEAKENING TREND.
BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
ASCAT 0506UTC
09UTC
09UTC. OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN OCEAN. KOBUS/PH
06UTC
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
