Arabian Sea: Cyclone 02A has formed, forecast to intensify next 48hours

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC 02A
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 10, 2019:
Location: 13.4°N 70.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 80km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET NORTHWESTWARD OF AND PARTIALLY EXPOSING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY THE STORM MOTION
BEING IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA
ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDIA, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR JAMNAGAR
AROUND TAU 96 AND TRACK INLAND. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL MOSTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER
350 NM WITH NAVGEM AS THE DISTINCT WEST OUTLIER, EFFECTIVELY KEEPING
THE CYCLONE OVER WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE FORMATIVE
NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 092230).//
NNNN