meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A): Final Warning issued by the JTWC. Peak intensity was raised at 100knots, Category 3 US


JMV File included


PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100KNOTS, CATEGORY 3 US. VIEW THE JMV FILE BELOW
PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100KNOTS, CATEGORY 3 US. VIEW THE JMV FILE BELOW
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 17, 2019:

Location: 21.8°N 66.8°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 100NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
162331Z 37GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, A 161655Z METOP-A
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOTS, AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 02A IS STILL EXPERIENCING
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 02A IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TC 02A TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. TC 02A
WILL WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 18
FEET.//
NNNN
JMV FILE/JTWC
0219060818  95N 715E  20
0219060900  99N 715E  20
0219060906 103N 714E  20
0219060912 107N 713E  20
0219060918 112N 711E  25
0219061000 121N 712E  30
0219061006 127N 709E  30
0219061012 133N 708E  35
0219061018 139N 707E  45
0219061100 145N 707E  50
0219061106 152N 709E  55
0219061112 160N 708E  65
0219061118 168N 706E  80
0219061200 176N 702E  90
0219061206 184N 700E  90
0219061212 191N 698E  90
0219061218 196N 696E  85
0219061300 201N 695E  85
0219061306 204N 694E  90
0219061312 207N 691E 100
0219061318 208N 688E  95
0219061400 209N 685E  90
0219061406 209N 684E  85
0219061412 208N 683E  75
0219061418 207N 680E  75
0219061500 206N 676E  80
0219061506 206N 671E  75
0219061512 207N 664E  70
0219061518 207N 659E  60
0219061600 209N 654E  55
0219061606 207N 651E  50
0219061612 205N 653E  40
0219061618 208N 661E  35
0219061700 218N 668E  35
NNNN

 


0053UTC: FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
0053UTC: FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

0130UTC: DECAYING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.
0130UTC: DECAYING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 17 Juin 2019 à 07:29