INVEST 93E: steady intensification expected next 36hours



TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 93E
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 25, 2019:

Location: 13.4°N 101.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
WTPN21 PHNC 250300
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 100.5W TO 16.9N 109.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
101.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
101.5W, APPROXIMATELY 225NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 250012Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LLC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260300Z.//
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TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

0530UTC
0530UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 25 Juin 2019 à 10:57