meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) strong category 2 US tracking slowly 110km to the southwest of Gujarat


Warning 13/JTWC


STRONG CATEGORY 2 US
STRONG CATEGORY 2 US
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 13, 2019:

Location: 20.8°N 69.0°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 950 mb
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 68.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF, ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND THE MOATS BETWEEN SPIRAL
RAINBANDS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE. A 131137Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS BELOW MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS), DUE TO THE
DETERIORATING STRUCTURE, ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS PERSISTED. A 131200Z
OBSERVATION FROM THE SHORE OF INDIA, 81NM AWAY, REPORTED 30 KTS AND
993 MB. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (5-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FUELING THE RECENT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, THE CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR IS
WRAPPING IN AND WILL LIMIT FUTURE INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
OVER INDIA. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM
AS ANOTHER STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST. AROUND
TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MOST MODELS, SUCH AS GFS, GALWEM, AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SO THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO STEERING BY
LOWER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN,
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE TIMING OF THIS SHARP TURN AND HOW
QUICKLY THEY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE LATER TERM MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOWING A SHARPER TURN THE PAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS A
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED BY THE STR BUILDING IN TO ITS NORTH,
RESULTING IN A DUE WESTWARD TRACK. IN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. COAMPS-
NAVGEM AND HWRF PREDICT A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM, BUT BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS 95 KTS THROUGH TAU 24 THEN BEGINS THE WEAKENING TREND.
BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.

16UTC: CLEAR-CUT ETE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR/GUJARAT
16UTC: CLEAR-CUT ETE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR/GUJARAT


1445UTC: CLEAR-CUT EYE FEATURE
1445UTC: CLEAR-CUT EYE FEATURE

1249UTC DMSP US
1249UTC DMSP US

 

1316UTC
1316UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. COAMPS AND HWRF STILL SHOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION NEXT 36H
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. COAMPS AND HWRF STILL SHOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION NEXT 36H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 13 Juin 2019 à 20:28