meteo





Arabian Sea: cyclone VAYU(02A) is developing an eye and is intensifying rather rapidly


Cyclone could make landfall shortly before 48hours between Diu and Porbandar/Gujarat as a category 2 US


WARNING 5/JTWC
WARNING 5/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

As of 06:00 UTC Jun 11, 2019:
Location: 15.2°N 70.9°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 70.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 110409Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
AND IS CORROBORATED WITH A 110522Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A
FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 55
KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 02A IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY SHEAR ZONE INTO A REGION OF LIGHTER
SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT,
EXCEEDING 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02A TOOK A JOG TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER INDIA. A PEAK INTENSITY OF
APPROXIMATELY 90 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED BY AROUND TAU 36,
FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 36,
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD
INCREASES, WITH ECMWF, AFUM, AND UKMET TAKING TC 02A FURTHER INLAND
TO THE EAST, WHEREAS THE NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TAKE THE SYSTEM
TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AND IS NUDGED EASTWARD FROM THE LAST JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
RESULTING IN AN EARLIER LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND
120900Z.//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR SHORTLY BEFORE 48HOURS AS A CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR SHORTLY BEFORE 48HOURS AS A CATEGORY 2 US


0231UTC: MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE
0231UTC: MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE

06UTC
06UTC

0524UTC
0524UTC

GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A

GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A

INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR TC 02A
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 11 Juin 2019 à 13:39