CLICK ON THE IMAGERIES BELOW TO GET THEM ENLARGED
JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 12W. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 94W
WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN). WARNING 32 ISSUED BY JTWC @ 03/2100 UTC
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.1N 144.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 889 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 47 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE INNER
EYEWALL OF TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS AS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
FAILED TO COMPLETE, ALLOWING THE ORIGINAL INNER EYEWALL TO REBUILD.
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO 16 C AND CLEARED OUT TO ITS
CURRENT OBLONG APPEARANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF TY 12W
DUE TO INCREASED PRESSURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVED
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 031800Z
CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 031800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 95 KTS AT 031800Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 93 KTS AT 031450Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 83 KTS AT 031800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST, HOWEVER,
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS OF JAPAN UNDERNEATH THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THE RESULTANT MOTION OF TY 12W IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN THE SAME OVERALL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD REGARDLESS OF WHICH STR IS THE PRIMARY STEERING
FACTOR. IN TERMS OF TRACK SPEED, THE BULK OF PHYSICS-BASED AND AI
MODELS DEPICT TRANSLATIONAL SPEED SLOWING TO 5-8 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 72
AND 96, DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN STR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROCHOIDAL MOTION OF TY 12W IS
OBSERVABLE IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE DISTANCE AND TIMING OF THE CPA
OF TY 12W TO OKINAWA AS IT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE. REGARDING INTENSITY,
TY DOLPHIN HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED AS ITS INNER EYEWALL STRENGTHENS
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
DECLINE IN ONLY 5-10 KTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EYE SIZE OF TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA
WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE SLIGHT DROP IN INTENSITY, HOWEVER THE
WIND FIELD SIZE OF TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 75 NM AS IT PASSES
OKINAWA. ALONG TRACK SPREAD HAS IMPROVED, WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE
THE SLOWEST SOLUTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF BOTH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT SPREAD
WITH BOTH COAMPS-TC MODELS DEPICTING CONTINUED IINTENSIFICATION OUT TO
TAU 60, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AIDS DEPICT A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BELOW THE JTWC
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP-MIND AI MODEL. THE
BULK OF THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT BETWEEN 70 AND 90
KTS INTENSITY AS TY 12W CPAS OKINAWA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 25.1N 144.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 889 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 47 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE INNER
EYEWALL OF TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS AS THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC)
FAILED TO COMPLETE, ALLOWING THE ORIGINAL INNER EYEWALL TO REBUILD.
THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO 16 C AND CLEARED OUT TO ITS
CURRENT OBLONG APPEARANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), LOW
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF TY 12W
DUE TO INCREASED PRESSURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVED
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 96 KTS AT 031800Z
CIMSS ADT: 99 KTS AT 031800Z
CIMSS AIDT: 95 KTS AT 031800Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 93 KTS AT 031450Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 83 KTS AT 031800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST, HOWEVER,
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW ON THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE RYUKYU ISLANDS OF JAPAN UNDERNEATH THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TY DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THE RESULTANT MOTION OF TY 12W IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN THE SAME OVERALL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD REGARDLESS OF WHICH STR IS THE PRIMARY STEERING
FACTOR. IN TERMS OF TRACK SPEED, THE BULK OF PHYSICS-BASED AND AI
MODELS DEPICT TRANSLATIONAL SPEED SLOWING TO 5-8 KTS BETWEEN TAUS 72
AND 96, DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN STR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TROCHOIDAL MOTION OF TY 12W IS
OBSERVABLE IN ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE DISTANCE AND TIMING OF THE CPA
OF TY 12W TO OKINAWA AS IT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE. REGARDING INTENSITY,
TY DOLPHIN HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED AS ITS INNER EYEWALL STRENGTHENS
AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
DECLINE IN ONLY 5-10 KTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EYE SIZE OF TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA
WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE SLIGHT DROP IN INTENSITY, HOWEVER THE
WIND FIELD SIZE OF TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY OF THE RYUKYU ISLAND CHAIN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 75 NM AS IT PASSES
OKINAWA. ALONG TRACK SPREAD HAS IMPROVED, WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE
THE SLOWEST SOLUTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF BOTH THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL AI MODELS. INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT SPREAD
WITH BOTH COAMPS-TC MODELS DEPICTING CONTINUED IINTENSIFICATION OUT TO
TAU 60, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AIDS DEPICT A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BELOW THE JTWC
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP-MIND AI MODEL. THE
BULK OF THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT BETWEEN 70 AND 90
KTS INTENSITY AS TY 12W CPAS OKINAWA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
AI Model Track Forecasts
@1450 UTC
@1447 UTC
Digital Dvorak
Bias Correction of Subjective Dvorak
DVORAK ANALYSIS @2030 UTC
TPPN11 PGTW 032101
A. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN)
B. 03/2030Z
C. 25.00N
D. 143.89E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1617Z 25.13N 144.62E ATMS
DE LA ROSA
A. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN)
B. 03/2030Z
C. 25.00N
D. 143.89E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 4.5. PT
YIELDS 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1617Z 25.13N 144.62E ATMS
DE LA ROSA
WESTERN PACIFIC: INVEST 94W ADVISORY ISSUED BY JTWC @1430 UTC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 124.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT TRACKED UNDER DEEP CONVECTION AFTER IT MADE LANDFALL IN LUZON. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LAND INTERACTION, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+ KNOTS) AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AS WELL AS ELEVATED GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH CAUSED BY INFLOW INTO TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) AND ELEVEATED GRADIENT FLOW TO THE WEST FROM FUNNELING EFFECTS IN THE LUZON STRAIT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 021930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
