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JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 12W.
WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN). WARNING 22 ISSUED BY JTWC @ 01/0900 UTC
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 157.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 927 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
12W MIDWAY THROUGH ITS THIRD EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A
PROMINENT DRY MOAT HAS FORMED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE INNER
EYEWALL. THE INNER EYE IS FILLING AND COLLAPSING AS THE OUTER
EYEWALL GAINS STRENGTH. THE COLDEST CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND
SYMMETRICAL ABOUT THE CENTER. THE ANIMATED LONGWAVE IR REVEALS THE
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FULLY ENVELOPED THE INNER EYEWALL AND SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT EYEWALL IN A FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW AMPLIFIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM, AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND SHALLOWING, BUT STILL PROMINENT, CENTRAL
EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONCURRENCE OF AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES AND THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 126 KTS AT 010730Z
CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 010630Z
CIMSS AIDT: 109 KTS AT 010630Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 010630Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 123 KTS AT 010651Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W (DOLPHIN) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING
STR CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHWESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD.
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 60, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A
SECOND STR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 120. REGARDING
INTENSITY, DOLPHIN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
RECOVER FROM THE ONGOING ERC. 12W MAY MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY ONCE COMPLETING ERC, BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A
SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TAU 24-48. BY TAU 48,
VWS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND OHC VALUES WILL
DECREASE TO 50-75 KJ PER CM SQUARED, CAUSING INCREASED IMPACTS FROM
THE STORM'S COLD WAKE. ALL ELSE REMAINING EQUAL, 12W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 72, THEN WEAKEN AT AN INCREASED PACE
FROM TAU 72-120. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE LIKELY,
AS THE STORM MAINTAINS TYPHOON INTENSITY, WITH SUBSEQUENT EVENTS
FURTHER WEAKENING THE CORE BUT EXPANDING THE WIND FIELD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY MINOR
DEVIATIONS IN CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. AS A RESULT, THE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVERTIME. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
STEMS FROM THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS AND THEIR
UNKNOWN IMPACTS TO BOTH THE INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 157.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 927 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON (TY)
12W MIDWAY THROUGH ITS THIRD EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A
PROMINENT DRY MOAT HAS FORMED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE INNER
EYEWALL. THE INNER EYE IS FILLING AND COLLAPSING AS THE OUTER
EYEWALL GAINS STRENGTH. THE COLDEST CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THOUGH THE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS EXPANSIVE AND
SYMMETRICAL ABOUT THE CENTER. THE ANIMATED LONGWAVE IR REVEALS THE
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FULLY ENVELOPED THE INNER EYEWALL AND SHOULD
BECOME THE DOMINANT EYEWALL IN A FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
HIGHLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW AMPLIFIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM, AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND SHALLOWING, BUT STILL PROMINENT, CENTRAL
EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONCURRENCE OF AGENCY
DVORAK FIXES AND THE CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 126 KTS AT 010730Z
CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 010630Z
CIMSS AIDT: 109 KTS AT 010630Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 123 KTS AT 010630Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 123 KTS AT 010651Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W (DOLPHIN) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING
STR CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHWESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, DRIVING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD.
BEGINNING AROUND TAU 60, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO A
SECOND STR CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 120. REGARDING
INTENSITY, DOLPHIN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
RECOVER FROM THE ONGOING ERC. 12W MAY MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY ONCE COMPLETING ERC, BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A
SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TAU 24-48. BY TAU 48,
VWS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND OHC VALUES WILL
DECREASE TO 50-75 KJ PER CM SQUARED, CAUSING INCREASED IMPACTS FROM
THE STORM'S COLD WAKE. ALL ELSE REMAINING EQUAL, 12W IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 72, THEN WEAKEN AT AN INCREASED PACE
FROM TAU 72-120. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE LIKELY,
AS THE STORM MAINTAINS TYPHOON INTENSITY, WITH SUBSEQUENT EVENTS
FURTHER WEAKENING THE CORE BUT EXPANDING THE WIND FIELD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY MINOR
DEVIATIONS IN CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. AS A RESULT, THE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVERTIME. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-120. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
STEMS FROM THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS AND THEIR
UNKNOWN IMPACTS TO BOTH THE INTENSITY AND WIND FIELD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 150 KT CAT 5 US SUPER TYPHOON
JMV FILE
1226072500 104N1716W 20
1226072506 107N1727W 20
1226072512 110N1738W 20
1226072518 114N1749W 20
1226072600 117N1760W 20
1226072606 120N1774W 25
1226072612 125N1789W 25
1226072618 128N1798E 25
1226072700 131N1783E 30
1226072706 132N1767E 35
1226072712 132N1752E 40
1226072718 131N1737E 45
1226072800 131N1728E 60
1226072806 132N1717E 75
1226072812 134N1707E 100
1226072818 137N1699E 125
1226072900 141N1691E 120
1226072906 146N1684E 120
1226072912 152N1676E 130
1226072918 158N1667E 150
1226073000 164N1657E 145
1226073006 169N1648E 140
1226073012 175N1638E 135
1226073018 179N1630E 140
1226073100 183N1619E 140
1226073106 186N1610E 140
1226073112 191N1601E 135
1226073118 198N1591E 125
1226080100 202N1583E 125
1226080106 208N1575E 120
1226080106 208N1575E 120
NNNN
1226072500 104N1716W 20
1226072506 107N1727W 20
1226072512 110N1738W 20
1226072518 114N1749W 20
1226072600 117N1760W 20
1226072606 120N1774W 25
1226072612 125N1789W 25
1226072618 128N1798E 25
1226072700 131N1783E 30
1226072706 132N1767E 35
1226072712 132N1752E 40
1226072718 131N1737E 45
1226072800 131N1728E 60
1226072806 132N1717E 75
1226072812 134N1707E 100
1226072818 137N1699E 125
1226072900 141N1691E 120
1226072906 146N1684E 120
1226072912 152N1676E 130
1226072918 158N1667E 150
1226073000 164N1657E 145
1226073006 169N1648E 140
1226073012 175N1638E 135
1226073018 179N1630E 140
1226073100 183N1619E 140
1226073106 186N1610E 140
1226073112 191N1601E 135
1226073118 198N1591E 125
1226080100 202N1583E 125
1226080106 208N1575E 120
1226080106 208N1575E 120
NNNN
@0651 UTC: THE THIRD ERC APPEARS TO BE NEAR COMPLETION
DVORAK ANALYSIS @0830 UTC DT=6.5 FT=6.5 +0.5/3H
TPPN11 PGTW 010856
A. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN)
B. 01/0830Z
C. 21.11N
D. 156.94E
E. TWO/GK2A
F. T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN E#
OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
YIELDS 6.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/0652Z 20.80N 157.28E SSMS
THOMPSON
A. TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN)
B. 01/0830Z
C. 21.11N
D. 156.94E
E. TWO/GK2A
F. T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN E#
OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET
YIELDS 6.5. PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/0652Z 20.80N 157.28E SSMS
THOMPSON
Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)
EASTERN PACIFIC: TS 07E(GENEVIEVE). WARNING 33 ISSUED @ 01/0900 UTC
ESTIMATED PEAK INTENSITY WAS 140 KT CAT 5 US
0726072218 76N 934W 20
0726072300 77N 942W 20
0726072306 78N 950W 25
0726072312 79N 959W 25
0726072318 81N 969W 25
0726072400 83N 978W 25
0726072406 85N 990W 25
0726072412 87N1002W 30
0726072418 89N1012W 35
0726072500 93N1021W 45
0726072506 99N1029W 45
0726072512 105N1039W 50
0726072512 105N1039W 50
0726072518 111N1050W 55
0726072600 118N1061W 65
0726072606 126N1076W 80
0726072612 132N1088W 100
0726072618 136N1099W 115
0726072700 144N1108W 130
0726072706 151N1117W 140
0726072712 157N1127W 135
0726072718 164N1135W 130
0726072800 169N1143W 125
0726072806 173N1150W 120
0726072812 177N1157W 110
0726072818 179N1165W 110
0726072900 181N1172W 115
0726072906 183N1180W 110
0726072912 186N1187W 100
0726072918 190N1196W 85
0726073000 194N1204W 85
0726073006 199N1215W 80
0726073012 202N1229W 70
0726073018 206N1242W 65
0726073100 211N1255W 60
0726073106 215N1266W 55
0726073112 219N1279W 50
0726073118 221N1295W 50
0726080100 224N1307W 45
0726080106 224N1319W 45
NNNN
0726072300 77N 942W 20
0726072306 78N 950W 25
0726072312 79N 959W 25
0726072318 81N 969W 25
0726072400 83N 978W 25
0726072406 85N 990W 25
0726072412 87N1002W 30
0726072418 89N1012W 35
0726072500 93N1021W 45
0726072506 99N1029W 45
0726072512 105N1039W 50
0726072512 105N1039W 50
0726072518 111N1050W 55
0726072600 118N1061W 65
0726072606 126N1076W 80
0726072612 132N1088W 100
0726072618 136N1099W 115
0726072700 144N1108W 130
0726072706 151N1117W 140
0726072712 157N1127W 135
0726072718 164N1135W 130
0726072800 169N1143W 125
0726072806 173N1150W 120
0726072812 177N1157W 110
0726072818 179N1165W 110
0726072900 181N1172W 115
0726072906 183N1180W 110
0726072912 186N1187W 100
0726072918 190N1196W 85
0726073000 194N1204W 85
0726073006 199N1215W 80
0726073012 202N1229W 70
0726073018 206N1242W 65
0726073100 211N1255W 60
0726073106 215N1266W 55
0726073112 219N1279W 50
0726073118 221N1295W 50
0726080100 224N1307W 45
0726080106 224N1319W 45
NNNN
Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW)
Platform: RCM-1 Acquisition Date: 2026-08-01 02:55:25 UTC
Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-01 02:55:25 UTC
Storm Name: EP072026 / GENEVIEVE
Storm ID: EP07
Storm Center Longitude: -130.621
Storm Center Latitude: 22.268
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 50.795
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 35.87
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 33.44
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 52.81
RMax (nmi): 41.00 - 72.00
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-01 02:55:25 UTC
Storm Name: EP072026 / GENEVIEVE
Storm ID: EP07
Storm Center Longitude: -130.621
Storm Center Latitude: 22.268
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 50.795
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 35.87
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 33.44
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 52.81
RMax (nmi): 41.00 - 72.00
