WESTERN PACIFIC: TY 12W(DOLPHIN) down from CAT4 US to CAT 1 in 36h, gradually approaching OKINAWA/TS 13W(KUJIRA)/Invest 96W//05@2200 UTC

WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 135.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 388 NM EAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
SMALL EYE FEATURE OF TYPHOON 12W PERSISTING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, ALTHOUGH RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY BECOMING OBSCURED. THE CORE
OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL PERSISTS AS WELL AND IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF EXPANSION AND SYMMETRIZATION IN ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE STATIONARY BANDING CONVECTIVE FEATURE
(SBC) HAS STRUGGLED TO REMAIN CONTINUOUS OR WRAP COMPLETELY AROUND
THE COMPACT CORE, LEAVING A PROMINENT MOAT OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE
COMPACT CORE AND THE SBC. THE MOAT IS ALSO APPARENT IN A 051643Z
AMSR-2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IN THE FUTURE, THOUGH PROBABLY
NOT IMMINENTLY AS IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO SET UP. EARLIER 050850Z RCM-3
AND 050855Z SENTINEL-1 SAR IMAGES REVEALED A PERSISTENT SWATH OF
LOWER WIND SPEED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE SEPARATING THE HIGHEST
WINDS WITHIN THE COMPACT CORE AND THE BROAD WIND FIELD SURROUNDING
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN SAR IMAGES
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN IR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE SPREAD OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE
WITH SELF-SUSTAINING RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM SAR WIND SPEED DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ)

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 87 KTS AT 051630Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 051800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 80 KTS AT 051800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 78 KTS AT 051722Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 78 KTS AT 051800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 12W (DOLPHIN) HAS CONTINUED ON A
WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STEERING SCENARIO HAS SHIFTED IN FAVOR OF THE
STR PERSISTING AND DRIVING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU
72, THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI AROUND TAU 96 AND BEYOND. THE CPA TO KADENA HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH UNDER THIS STEERING REGIME, NOW EXPECTED
AROUND 070800Z. TY 12W HAS WEAKENED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 80 KTS
AS IT APPROACHES OKINAWA. DYNAMIC FACTORS RELATING TO THE SYSTEM
STRUCTURE (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND BROADENING WIND FIELD) COULD
RESULT IN SOME FLUCTUATIONS ABOVE OR BELOW 80 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY OVER
EASTERN CHINA. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UP UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND TAU
96. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING A SHARPER RECURVE
IN THE EAST CHINA SEA IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
AT TAU 96 IS STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT AT 280 NM AS A RESULT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL RECURVING SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO A MODIFIED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT
REMOVES GALWEM AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NAVGAM AS A SHARPLY RECURVING
OUTLIER, AND GFS AS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS
AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS, WHICH DEPICT A PROMINENT PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION, THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE PERSISTENCE OF INTENSITY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEFORE LANDFALL AND RAPID DISSIPATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED AMONG THE LATTER GROUPING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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JMV FILE
1226080406 253N1419E 115
1226080412 252N1406E 110
1226080418 253N1393E 105
1226080500 254N1382E 100
1226080506 256N1372E  95
1226080512 259N1362E  85
1226080518 263N1350E  80

Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-05 08:50:52 UTC
Storm Name: WP122026 / DOLPHIN
Storm ID: WP12
Storm Center Longitude: 136.820
Storm Center Latitude: 25.785
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 28.516
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 87.77
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 81.21
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 76.56
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 89.19
RMax (nmi): 9.00 - 105.00

 

WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 13W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.7N 120.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 13W. ALTHOUGH POORLY
ORGANIZED, THE CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO PERSIST NEAR THE SYSTEM
CENTER AND SUSTAINED THE CIRCULATION AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN
LUZON, WHERE LANDFALL IS IMMINENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ROTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER
DATA TO CONFIRM THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PERSISTENT
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ACKNOWLEDGING THE PRESENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF LUZON. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO LUZON LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DOMINATED BY
THE LOWER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL SURGE FLOW

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 051730Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 051730Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 051811Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 052010Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W HAS SLOWLY MADE ITS
WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
LANDFALL OVER THE ISLAND IS IMMINENT, AFTER WHICH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW (ENHANCED BY TY 12W TO THE NORTHEAST) IS EXPECTED TO
CAPTURE THE REMNANT VORTEX AND EJECT IT INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE REMNANTS ARE THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
TRACK WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING TY 12W BY TAU 36. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LUZON,
THEN MORE SLOWLY AS THE VORTEX OPENS INTO A TROUGHING FEATURE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE REMNANTS WILL
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THIS PROCESS AND DISSIPATION UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE TRACK MOTION DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW, WITH
PREVIOUS TRACK SPEED DISPARITIES NO LONGER PRESENT IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITE. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, OWING TO THE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH CROSSING OVER LUZON. MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO ACCURATELY DEPICT THE WEAKENING OVER LAND, AND THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED BELOW THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

 

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZAUG2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050152ZAUG2026//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZAUG2026//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KUJIRA) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 118.7E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 050300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 05AUG26 0000Z, TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
25.4N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE 
REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 050300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.1N 166.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 36 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, STILL DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF TROUGHING. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 
30 C), AND STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 
THE CIRCULATION MOVING UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND INTO A DRIER 
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL HINDER ITS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND CAUSE IT TO BECOME SUBTROPICAL AFTER 36 HOURS. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 96W INTO A BROAD, 
POSSIBLE SHORT TERM TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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