meteo





Cyclone VAYU(02A) category 2 US is gradually approaching Porbandar area


Intensity is forecast to peak within 12hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

NORTH INDIAN: Arabian Sea

TC VAYU(02A)
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 12, 2019:

Location: 19.1°N 69.8°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 961 mb
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 69.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (VAYU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE,
APPROXIMATELY 90-100NM DIAMETER, WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 120900Z AMSR2 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (30-
31C). TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER INDIA. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND A BUILDING STR OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA.
THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE STALL SCENARIO JUST
OFFSHORE OF NORTHWEST INDIA, HOWEVER, NVGM REMAINS THE PRIMARY
OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD OMAN INTO THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE FLOW. THE 12/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING
WESTWARD AS NAVGEM INDICATES WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF IT STALLING
OVER NORTHWEST INDIA OR JUST OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL
STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, CONVERGENCE
ALOFT AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR PORBANDAR IN 24/36H
FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR PORBANDAR IN 24/36H

WARNING 9/JTWC
WARNING 9/JTWC


12UTC
12UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 12 Juin 2019 à 20:01