JTWC Patrick Hoareau | Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

Météo.Cyclones.World@PH

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2 week cyclonic development potential: moderate chances for: South Indian, Northwest Australia and East of the Philippines, 09/1830utc update - 03/10/2021 - 07:30

WEEK 1: As predicted in last week's outlook, two tropical cyclones developed over the South Indian Ocean during the past week. Cyclone Habana formed over the south-central Indian Ocean and...

SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(Habana), 70knots/Cat1, forecast to reach Cat4 by 48h, rapid intensification possible , 09/09utc update - 03/09/2021 - 13:55

24S(HABANA). 09/09UTC. TC 24S HAS BEGUN TO REINTENSIFY AFTER A WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND OCEANIC COOLING. THE REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED...

SOUTH INDIAN: 25S(IMAN) is now subtropical, 24S(HABANA) forecast to re-intensify after 24h, 08/09utc updates - 03/08/2021 - 14:55

24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS WARMED EVEN AS IT MAINTAINED A 22-KM PINHOLE EYE. CLICK TO...

SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) set to re-intensify after 48hours and 25S(IMAN) analysed at 45knots, 07/21utc updates - 03/08/2021 - 02:00

24S(HABANA) AND 25S(IMAN). ON THE RIGHT END 24S LOST IT EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BEEN BACK RECENTLY. 25S HAS INTENSIFIED BUT HAS A SHEARED PATTERN. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED. 2021 MAR 07 21UTC...

SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) still a US/CAT 4, forecast to weaken next 48h and then undergo a 2nd intensity spike, 07/09utc update - 03/07/2021 - 14:55

24S(HABANA). 07/09UTC. 8H ANIMATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED DEEP, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A PINHOLE 9-KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED....

SOUTH INDIAN: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 91S(IMAN) tracking to the west of Réunion island - 03/07/2021 - 04:30

INVEST 91S. 07/00UTC. 9H ANIMATION DEPICTING INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING OVER RÉUNION ISLAND WHERE A MARKED THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS REPORTED. SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORT TOPS GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE...

SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) still a powerful and compact CAT 4, Invest 91S up-graded to Medium west of Réunion, 06/18utc update - 03/06/2021 - 23:15

06/18UTC. 9H ANIMATION. CAT4 24S(HABANA) ON THE RIGHT END. ON THE LEFT END INVEST 91S IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 30KNOTS WITH ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION TRACKING PARTLY OVER RÉUNION ISLAND. IF...

SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), still a US/CAT 2 but will rapidly become subtropical and weaken drastically next 36h, 06/15utc update - 03/06/2021 - 19:20

2021 MAR 06 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #23P #NIRAN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA WARNING 23 As of 12:00 UTC Mar 06, 2021: Location: 24.3°S 169.5°E Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 165km/h)...

SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), US/CAT 3, is tracking rapidly South of New Caledonia, rapidly weakening, 06/03utc update - 03/06/2021 - 07:55

23P(NIRAN). 06/03UTC. WEAKENING SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED AND FRONTAL IN NATURE AS NIRAN ACCELERATES TO...

SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) US/CAT 4 has not weakened so far, 06/03utc update - 03/06/2021 - 07:30

24S(HABANA). 06/02UTC. 9H ANIMATION SHOWS THE CYCLONE REMAINS COMPACT AND INTENSE. IF NEEDED CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ANIMATE. 2021 MAR 06 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #24S #HABANA ...

SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) has reached US/CAT 4 with 260km/h top gusts, still intensifying, 05/15utc update - 03/05/2021 - 19:55

24S(HABANA). 05/1515UTC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING. DVORAK HAS REACHED 6.5/6.5 AT 1415UTC. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED. 2021 MAR 05 15UTC...

SOUTH PACIFIC: Super Cyclone 23P(NIRAN) has reached US/Category 5, bearing down on Noumea/New Caledonia - 03/05/2021 - 19:15

23P(NIRAN). 05/1435UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 23P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (ERI), HAVING INTENSIFIED 30 KNOTS IN SIX HOURS, WITH...

South Pacific: 23P(NIRAN) US/Cat 4,still intensifying likely above the forecast/South Indian: 24S(HABANA): explosive intensification,05/09utc updates - 03/05/2021 - 13:30

23P(NIRAN). 05/09UTC. ENHANCED INFRA-RED ANIMATION SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE WELL DEFINED EYE .THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOW IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS COMPACT SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS STILL...

SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), rapid intensification up to US/Category 4 within 12hours, rapidly approaching NCaledonia area, 05/03utc update - 03/05/2021 - 07:35

2021 MAR 05 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #23P #NIRAN #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA WARNING 17 As of 00:00 UTC Mar 05, 2021: Location: 16.7°S 154.6°E Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h) Gusts:...

Southern Hemisphere: the JTWC is monitoring 4 systems at once, 23P(NIRAN), 22S(MARIAN), 24S(HABANA) and Invest 91S. 04/15utc updates - 03/04/2021 - 19:30

04/15UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS NOW ON THE...

SHEM:busy time! 23P(NIRAN) set to reach US/Cat 4 by 24h/ 22S(MARIAN) still at 55knots/ Invest 90S up-graded to High, Invest 91S soon on the map, 04/03utc updates - 03/04/2021 - 08:05

04/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW LIKELY TO REACH35KNOTS...

SHEM: 23P(NIRAN) forecast to peak as a strong US/Cat 3 in 36h, 22S(MARIAN) is weakening. Invest 90S now on the map, 03/15utc updates - 03/03/2021 - 19:50

03/18UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS. INVEST 90S IS NOW ON THE MAP WITH...

Southern HEM: a couple of US/CAT 1 cyclones, 22S(MARIAN) is weakening but 23P(NIRAN) is intensifying, 03/03utc updates - 03/03/2021 - 07:50

2021 MAR 03 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #23P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA WARNING 9 As of 00:00 UTC Mar 03, 2021: Location: 14.7°S 148.3°E Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h) Gusts: 80 kt (...

SHEM: 23P(NIRAN) 55knots gradually intensifying over the Coral Sea// 22S(MARIAN) 90knots set on a weakening trend, 02/15utc updates - 03/02/2021 - 19:25

22S(MARIAN). 02/1017UTC. DMSP VISIBLE. 2021 MAR 02 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE TC #23P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA WARNING 7 As of 12:00 UTC Mar 02, 2021: Location: 14.8°S 148.2°E Maximum...

SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) still a US/Category 2, Smap(Nasa) agreed very well, 02/03utc update - 03/02/2021 - 08:05

22S(MARIAN). 02/0335UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND THE EYE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND...

CORAL SEA: 23P(NIRAN) forecast to peak near 70knots/US Category 1 by 72hours, 02/03utc update - 03/02/2021 - 07:15

23P(NIRAN). 02/0305UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CLICK TO ANIMATE. 2021 MAR 02 03UTC...

CORAL SEA: TC 23P: slow-moving next 48hours, forecast to reach US/Category 1 by 96hours, 01/15utc update - 03/01/2021 - 19:20

23P. 01/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED, WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER....

SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) 85knots, slow-moving and gradually weakening next 48hours, 01/15utc update - 03/01/2021 - 18:45

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE...

CORAL SEA: 23P(99p) has reached 35knots, low confidence in the forecast track at the moment, 01/03utc update - 03/01/2021 - 08:05

23P. 01/0310UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF...

SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) peaked at 105knots/US CAT 3 and has undergone an eye-wall replacement cycle, 01/03utc update - 03/01/2021 - 07:25

22S(MARIAN). 01/0245UTC. DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL...

SOUTH INDIAN: 22S(MARIAN) has intensified to US/Category 3 with near 230km/h top gusts, 28/15utc update - 02/28/2021 - 19:25

22S(MARIAN). 28/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TC 22S(MARIAN) HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND ENLARGING TO 55...

SOUTH PACIFIC/Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued for Invest 99P, 28/12utc update - 02/28/2021 - 17:15

INVEST 99P. 28/1130UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WILLIS ISLAND, AND A 280702UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A...

Southern HEM: TC 22S(MARIAN),80knots,intensifying over the South Indian//Coral Sea: Invest 99P up-graded to Medium,28/03utc updates - 02/28/2021 - 07:20

22S(MARIAN). 28/0305UTC. HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE ANIMATION.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 35KM RAGGED EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH...

SOUTH INDIAN: Smap(Nasa) indicates 22S(MARIAN) is probably a strong CAT1(US). 27/15utc update - 02/27/2021 - 19:15

22S(MARIAN). 27/1153UTC. SMAP(NASA) READ 10MINUTE WINDS OF 69KNOTS=79KNOTS(1 MINUTE). THE OVERPASS WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT WARNING TIME AND SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED AT...

Southern HEM: TC 22S, 65knots, has reached US/Category 1, peak intensity forecast by 48h, Invest 99P on the map, 27/03utc update - 02/27/2021 - 07:30

22S(MARIAN). 27/02UTC.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IF NEEDED CLICJK TO ANIMATE....

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