SOUTH INDIAN: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert(TCFA) issued for Invest 98S, 27/09utc update


INVEST 98S. 27/10UTC. 8H LOOP. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.


INVEST 98S. 27/10UTC. 8H LOOP. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.
INVEST 98S. 27/10UTC. 8H LOOP. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 MAR 27 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST #98S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TCFA
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 27, 2021:
Location: 10.2°S 65.6°E
Maximum Winds: 28/33 kt ( 55/60km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH
LOCATED AT 27/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 810KM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 98S. 27/09UTC. TCFA ISSUED: HIGH CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS.
INVEST 98S. 27/09UTC. TCFA ISSUED: HIGH CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24HOURS.

INVEST 98S. INVEST 98S IS LOCATED IN  A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND  29C AND LIGHT-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE  IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DRY AIR  LOCATED ABOUT 370 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO  BE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AT PRESENT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE  MIXED OPINIONS ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH MOST SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT  INTENSIFICATION OF 98S IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS  DEPICT 98S WITH A BROADER AND WEAKER CIRCULATION THAN IS BEING  OBSERVED, SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE HIGHER. INVEST 98S  IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURN EASTWARD UNDER  THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY WIND BAND TO ITS NORTH.
INVEST 98S. INVEST 98S IS LOCATED IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 29C AND LIGHT-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATE A BAND OF DRY AIR LOCATED ABOUT 370 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AT PRESENT. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE MIXED OPINIONS ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH MOST SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF 98S IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS DEPICT 98S WITH A BROADER AND WEAKER CIRCULATION THAN IS BEING OBSERVED, SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE HIGHER. INVEST 98S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN TURN EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY WIND BAND TO ITS NORTH.

INVEST 98S. 27/0915UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE  IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)  LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A MASS OF CONVECTION THAT HAS  EXHIBITED PULSING BURSTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY  INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED WEST OF  THE LLCC AS A RESULT OF 10-15 KTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,  AND THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. HOWEVER, A  270533Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CIRCULATION THAT HAS SEEN  ITS RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND CONTRACT SUBSTANTIALLY TO AROUND 20 NM  DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS ENCOMPASSING  THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HEALTHY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS  OBSERVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT NORTHEAST. Eumetsat. Enhanced by Patrick Hoareau.
INVEST 98S. 27/0915UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A MASS OF CONVECTION THAT HAS EXHIBITED PULSING BURSTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC AS A RESULT OF 10-15 KTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. HOWEVER, A 270533Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CIRCULATION THAT HAS SEEN ITS RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND CONTRACT SUBSTANTIALLY TO AROUND 20 NM DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HEALTHY UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT NORTHEAST. Eumetsat. Enhanced by Patrick Hoareau.

INVEST 98S. 27/0904UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS VERY WELL THE CIRCULATION WITH THE EXPOSED CENTER TO THE EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
INVEST 98S. 27/0904UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS VERY WELL THE CIRCULATION WITH THE EXPOSED CENTER TO THE EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION.


27/09UTC. INVEST 98S IS UP-GRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 98S. INVEST 95S IS WEAKENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE MAP. THE 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED AT 27/0815UTC.
27/09UTC. INVEST 98S IS UP-GRADED TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 98S. INVEST 95S IS WEAKENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE MAP. THE 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS WERE DISCONTINUED AT 27/0815UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 27 Mars 2021 à 13:55