SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) still a US/CAT 4, forecast to weaken next 48h and then undergo a 2nd intensity spike, 07/09utc update


24S(HABANA). 07/09UTC. 8H ANIMATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED DEEP, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A PINHOLE 9-KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


24S(HABANA). 07/09UTC. 8H ANIMATION.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED DEEP, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE  OVERCAST AND A PINHOLE 9-KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
24S(HABANA). 07/09UTC. 8H ANIMATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT MAINTAINED DEEP, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A PINHOLE 9-KM EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 MAR 07 10UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 7/UPDATE
As of 09:00 UTC Mar 07, 2021:
Location: 17.1°S 79.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 07/09UTC APPROXIMATELY 1750KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND,  HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09KM/H OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

24S(HABANA). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 07/09UTC. TC 24S IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,  LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS IN A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL  RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SECONDARY NER TO THE EAST THAT IS  SLIGHTLY THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY DRIVING THE  CYCLONE POLEWARD. AFTER 24H, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BUILD  TO THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING, TURNING TC 24S TO A WESTWARD TRACK  THEN, AFTER 96H, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN  PRIMARILY DUE TO DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND BY TAU 36-48,  WILL BE REDUCED TO 85KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2. AFTER 48H, INCREASED OUTFLOW FROM THE  STR WILL FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE AND BY TAU 120, WILL  RE-STRENGTHEN TO 105KTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
24S(HABANA). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 07/09UTC. TC 24S IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS IN A COL BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SECONDARY NER TO THE EAST THAT IS SLIGHTLY THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND SLOWLY DRIVING THE CYCLONE POLEWARD. AFTER 24H, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND ASSUME STEERING, TURNING TC 24S TO A WESTWARD TRACK THEN, AFTER 96H, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIMARILY DUE TO DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND BY TAU 36-48, WILL BE REDUCED TO 85KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2. AFTER 48H, INCREASED OUTFLOW FROM THE STR WILL FUEL A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE AND BY TAU 120, WILL RE-STRENGTHEN TO 105KTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

24S(HABANA).NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE  SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK DUE TO THE  COMPLEX STEERING MECHANISMS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR  THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
24S(HABANA).NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING MECHANISMS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

24S(HABANA). 07/0757UTC. WEAKENING MICROWAVE SIGNATURE COMPARED TO 24H EARLIER.
24S(HABANA). 07/0757UTC. WEAKENING MICROWAVE SIGNATURE COMPARED TO 24H EARLIER.


24S(HABANA). 07/0034UTC. DMSP.
24S(HABANA). 07/0034UTC. DMSP.

24S(HABANA). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.2 m/s (10.0 kts) Direction :   46.3 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H
24S(HABANA). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.2 m/s (10.0 kts) Direction : 46.3 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 7 Mars 2021 à 14:55