SOUTH INDIAN:24S(HABANA)125knots/Cat4 forecast to weaken slowly next 48hours but short-term intensity increase still possible,11/09utc update


24S(HABANA). 11/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS THE NEW RAGGED EYE HAS SHRUNK TO APPROXIMATELY 33KM.THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL.11/0830UTC SATELLITE BULLETIN FROM JTWC INDICATES A SHORT-TERM GAIN IN ORGANIZATION FROM 11/06UTC WITH DVORAK BEING AT 6.5/6.5 +0.5/3HOURS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


24S(HABANA). 11/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS THE NEW RAGGED EYE HAS SHRUNK TO APPROXIMATELY 33KM.THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL.11/0830UTC SATELLITE BULLETIN FROM JTWC INDICATES A SHORT-TERM GAIN IN ORGANIZATION FROM 11/06UTC WITH DVORAK BEING AT 6.5/6.5 +0.5/3HOURS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
24S(HABANA). 11/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS THE NEW RAGGED EYE HAS SHRUNK TO APPROXIMATELY 33KM.THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL.11/0830UTC SATELLITE BULLETIN FROM JTWC INDICATES A SHORT-TERM GAIN IN ORGANIZATION FROM 11/06UTC WITH DVORAK BEING AT 6.5/6.5 +0.5/3HOURS. CLICK ON THE IMAGERY TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 MAR 11 10UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 15/UPDATE
As of 09:00 UTC Mar 11, 2021:
Location: 17.7°S 73.9°E
Maximum Winds( AT 11/06UTC): 125 kt (230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 935 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
LOCATED AT 11/09UTC APPROXIMATELY 1130KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF  RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT  13KM/H OVER THE PAST NINE HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

24S(HABANA). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC. ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION ALSO  INDICATES COLD DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO INTRUDE TOWARD THE CENTER AND  THE RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH, AS EVIDENCED  IN A WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THESE TWO DYNAMICS WILL  MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW WEAKENING IN THE NEAR- TO MID- TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TC 24S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD  THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL  RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 36H, AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD  AND REORIENTS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN  SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING CAUSED BY COOL DRY AIR  INTRUSION AND MINIMIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BECOME MORE RAPID  AFTER 48H AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, CAUSING  LOCALIZED UPWELLING RESULTING IN COOLER SSTS. BY 120H, TC HABANA  WILL BE REDUCED TO 55KTS.
24S(HABANA). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC. ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES COLD DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO INTRUDE TOWARD THE CENTER AND THE RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH, AS EVIDENCED IN A WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THESE TWO DYNAMICS WILL MAINLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW WEAKENING IN THE NEAR- TO MID- TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TC 24S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 36H, AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD AND REORIENTS, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING CAUSED BY COOL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MINIMIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48H AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, CAUSING LOCALIZED UPWELLING RESULTING IN COOLER SSTS. BY 120H, TC HABANA WILL BE REDUCED TO 55KTS.

24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP  TO 36H. AFTERWARD, THE SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE AS A  SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND COMPETES FOR STEERING,  RESULTING IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS  HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 48H; AFTERWARD,  LOW CONFIDENCE.
24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO 36H. AFTERWARD, THE SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE AS A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES AND COMPETES FOR STEERING, RESULTING IN A QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 48H; AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE.

24S(HABANA). 11/0401UTC. METOP-C. Eumetsat. Enhanced by PH.
24S(HABANA). 11/0401UTC. METOP-C. Eumetsat. Enhanced by PH.


24S(HABANA). 11/0146UTC. MICROWAVE SHOWED A COMPLETED EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
24S(HABANA). 11/0146UTC. MICROWAVE SHOWED A COMPLETED EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

24S(HABANA). 11/06UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.5 m/s ( 8.7 kts) Direction :   99.2 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H
24S(HABANA). 11/06UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.5 m/s ( 8.7 kts) Direction : 99.2 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H


11/09UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA) ALONG WITH 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
11/09UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA) ALONG WITH 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 11 Mars 2021 à 14:35