SOUTH INDIAN: Invest 99S is up-graded to High, Invest 90S is up-graded to Medium, 03/15utc


03/14UTC. 12H ANIMATION. IF NECESSARY CLICK TO ANIMATE.


03/14UTC. 12H ANIMATION.
03/14UTC. 12H ANIMATION.
2021 APR 03 15UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
INVEST #99S #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
TCFA
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 03, 2021:
Location: 10.7°S 123.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
LOCATED AT 03/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 390 KM NORTH OF BROWSE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  UP-GRADED TO HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #90S #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 03, 2021:
Location: 10.8°S 102.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
LOCATED AT 03/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 310 KM WEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND .  
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

INVEST 99S. 03/14UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(TCFA).
INVEST 99S. 03/14UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(TCFA).

INVEST 99S. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99S  WILL REMAIN LARGELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD  MOVEMENT BEFORE TURNING 180 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST IN AROUND 18 TO  24 HOURS. IN THAT TIME, 99S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY; HOWEVER,  MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE MAJORITY PREDICTING 99S REACHING  WARNING THRESHOLD IN APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF, THE ONLY  OUTLIER, PREDICTS A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING WARNING  THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
INVEST 99S. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL REMAIN LARGELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE TURNING 180 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST IN AROUND 18 TO 24 HOURS. IN THAT TIME, 99S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE MAJORITY PREDICTING 99S REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF, THE ONLY OUTLIER, PREDICTS A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INVEST 99S. A 031150Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS  REVEALS A TIGHT LLCC WITH A SMALL, BUT ENHANCED, WIND FIELD OF 20 TO  30 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE 35 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH.
INVEST 99S. A 031150Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT LLCC WITH A SMALL, BUT ENHANCED, WIND FIELD OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE 35 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH.

INVEST 90S. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE  ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND  EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO  20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD, REMAINING  ELONGATED WHILE INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD  IN 2 TO 4 DAYS.
INVEST 90S. 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD, REMAINING ELONGATED WHILE INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN 2 TO 4 DAYS.

03/1430UTC. INVEST 99S IS UP-GRADED TO HIGH: HIGH CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24H. INVEST 90S IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 99S.
03/1430UTC. INVEST 99S IS UP-GRADED TO HIGH: HIGH CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN 24H. INVEST 90S IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 99S.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 3 Avril 2021 à 19:45