Menu

SOUTH INDIAN: 25S(IMAN) is now subtropical, 24S(HABANA) forecast to re-intensify after 24h, 08/09utc updates


24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS WARMED EVEN AS IT MAINTAINED A 22-KM PINHOLE EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS WARMED EVEN AS IT MAINTAINED A 22-KM PINHOLE EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS WARMED EVEN AS IT MAINTAINED A 22-KM PINHOLE EYE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
2021 MAR 08 0945UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 9
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 08, 2021:
Location: 18.2°S 81.0°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt (150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 08/06UTC 1820KM APPROXIMATELY 1845KM EAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #25S #IMAN   #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 3/FINAL
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 08, 2021:
Location: 27.0°S 61.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
SUBTROPICAL
LOCATED AT 08/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 870KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 54 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS


Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

24S(HABANA). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC. TC 24S IS BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTEASTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH IS SLOWLY TAKING OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. BY 12H, THE NEW STR WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. AFTER 72H, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FURTHER NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FUEL ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24H.
24S(HABANA). WARNING 9 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC. TC 24S IS BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTEASTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE SOUTH IS SLOWLY TAKING OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. BY 12H, THE NEW STR WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. AFTER 72H, THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FURTHER NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER, ROBUST OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FUEL ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24H.

24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM TRACK ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM TRACK ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

24S(HABANA).08/0552UTC. METOP-C. 22KM PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. Eumetsat. PH.
24S(HABANA).08/0552UTC. METOP-C. 22KM PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. Eumetsat. PH.

24S(HABANA). 08/0725UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM.
24S(HABANA). 08/0725UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM.

24S(HABANA). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 8.9 m/s (17.3 kts) Direction : 60.5 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: NEUTRAL OVER 24H
24S(HABANA). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 8.9 m/s (17.3 kts) Direction : 60.5 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: NEUTRAL OVER 24H

24S(HABANA). AFTER 24HOURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTEN.
24S(HABANA). AFTER 24HOURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTEN.


25S(IMAN). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO COOLER (27C AND DECREASING) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG (40KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND GROSSLY ELONGATED WITH THE 35KNOT WIND FIELD EXPANDED UP TO 185KM. TC PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEET INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW SUBTROPICAL AND WILL REMAIN SO AS IT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
25S(IMAN). WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 08/09UTC.ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO COOLER (27C AND DECREASING) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG (40KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME IRREGULAR AND GROSSLY ELONGATED WITH THE 35KNOT WIND FIELD EXPANDED UP TO 185KM. TC PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEET INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW SUBTROPICAL AND WILL REMAIN SO AS IT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
JMV FILE
2521030312 174S 386E  15
2521030318 175S 395E  15
2521030400 174S 404E  15
2521030406 172S 408E  15
2521030412 171S 410E  25
2521030418 171S 414E  25
2521030500 171S 425E  25
2521030506 174S 434E  25
2521030512 181S 447E  25
2521030518 187S 460E  25
2521030600 194S 481E  25
2521030606 198S 492E  25
2521030612 206S 506E  25
2521030618 217S 528E  30
2521030700 222S 538E  30
2521030706 228S 550E  30
2521030712 234S 562E  40
2521030718 244S 580E  45
2521030800 249S 590E  45
2521030806 270S 613E  45
NNNN

25P(IMAN).
25P(IMAN).

25S(IMAN). 08/0945UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AS IT ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD CHARACTERIZED BY UNRAVELED/DISPERSED RAIN BANDS AND WARMED CONVECTIVE TOPS. Eumetsat. PH.
25S(IMAN). 08/0945UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED AS IT ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD CHARACTERIZED BY UNRAVELED/DISPERSED RAIN BANDS AND WARMED CONVECTIVE TOPS. Eumetsat. PH.


25S(IMAN). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 08/0437UTC 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS.
25S(IMAN). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 08/0437UTC 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS.

25S(IMAN). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 22.9 m/s (44.5 kts) Direction : 311.1 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: VERY UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H
25S(IMAN). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 22.9 m/s (44.5 kts) Direction : 311.1 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: VERY UNFAVOURABLE OVER 24H


25S(IMAN). THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING OVER COOL WATERS WITH VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
25S(IMAN). THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING OVER COOL WATERS WITH VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.


08/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA). WARNING 3/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON 25S(IMAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
08/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA). WARNING 3/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON 25S(IMAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Monday, March 8th 2021 à 14:55
Les News
Liens utiles
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TC 22P(PAUL)// Remnants of TC 21S(OLGA)// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 1103utc

TC 21S(OLGA) SAR reveals still a bit stronger than expected// INVEST 97P// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Traccks// 0903utc

TC 21S(OLGA) peaked as a powerful CAT 4 US// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 0803utc

TC 21S(OLGA) reaches CAT 3 US still intensifying// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 0709utc

TC 21S(OLGA) intensifying and peaking within 24H may reach CAT 2 US// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks, 0615utc