SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(Habana), 70knots/Cat1, forecast to reach Cat4 by 48h, rapid intensification possible , 09/09utc update


24S(HABANA). 09/09UTC. TC 24S HAS BEGUN TO REINTENSIFY AFTER A WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND OCEANIC COOLING. THE REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A 22 KM EYE. HERE IS A 3H30 MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


24S(HABANA). 09/09UTC. TC 24S HAS BEGUN TO REINTENSIFY AFTER A WEAKENING  PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND OCEANIC COOLING.  THE REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A 22  KM EYE. HERE IS A 3H30 MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
24S(HABANA). 09/09UTC. TC 24S HAS BEGUN TO REINTENSIFY AFTER A WEAKENING PHASE ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION AND OCEANIC COOLING. THE REINTENSIFICATION IS EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH SHOWS A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A 22 KM EYE. HERE IS A 3H30 MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
2021 MAR 09 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 11/UPDATE
As of 09:00 UTC Mar 09, 2021:
Location: 18.4°S 79.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt (130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 09/09UTC APPROXIMATELY 1680KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 09, 2021:
Location: 27.7°S 63.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
SUBTROPICAL AND DISSIPATING
LOCATED AT 09/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 880KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

24S(HABANA). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD  OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO  CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH 48H UNTIL THE STR WEAKENS AND  SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS  WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, TC  HABANA WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO COMPETING  STEERING INFLUENCES, NAMELY THE STR TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR  TO THE WEST. AN ADDITIONAL IMPEDIMENT THAT WILL LIMIT POLEWARD TRACK  MOTION IS A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE  INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION  OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND THE  COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT ENHANCED INFRA-RED IMAGERY YIELDS  AN UNOFFICIAL DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AS THE SMALL EYE  EMERGES. THIS DATA WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST  THROUGH 48H, WHICH REFLECTS A SHARPER INCREASE TO THE PEAK  INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 4 BY 48H. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS  SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH 72H WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER  72H AS MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SST VALUES  COOL SLIGHTLY TO 27C.
24S(HABANA). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 09/09UTC.ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH 48H UNTIL THE STR WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH 72H. AFTER 72H, TC HABANA WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, NAMELY THE STR TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING STR TO THE WEST. AN ADDITIONAL IMPEDIMENT THAT WILL LIMIT POLEWARD TRACK MOTION IS A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY HWRF, COAMPS-TC AND THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT ENHANCED INFRA-RED IMAGERY YIELDS AN UNOFFICIAL DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AS THE SMALL EYE EMERGES. THIS DATA WAS INCORPORATED INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 48H, WHICH REFLECTS A SHARPER INCREASE TO THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 4 BY 48H. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH 72H WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 72H AS MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS AND SST VALUES COOL SLIGHTLY TO 27C.

24S(HABANA). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 340  KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 120H. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE  TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN.
24S(HABANA). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 340 KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 120H. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN.

24S(HABANA). 09/0745UTC. THE SMALL EYE WAS WELL DEPICTED HAVING EMERGED SINCE 09/0645UTC. BUT THE EYE FEATURE IS STILL FLUCTUATING AND HAS BEEN LESS DEFINED UP TO 09/09UTC. NOTE THE OUTFLOW(CIRRUS). Eumetsat.PH.
24S(HABANA). 09/0745UTC. THE SMALL EYE WAS WELL DEPICTED HAVING EMERGED SINCE 09/0645UTC. BUT THE EYE FEATURE IS STILL FLUCTUATING AND HAS BEEN LESS DEFINED UP TO 09/09UTC. NOTE THE OUTFLOW(CIRRUS). Eumetsat.PH.

24S(HABANA). 09/0809UTC. NPP ENHANCED IR. THE SMALL EYE FEATURE WAS WELL DEPICTED.
24S(HABANA). 09/0809UTC. NPP ENHANCED IR. THE SMALL EYE FEATURE WAS WELL DEPICTED.


24S(HABANA). 09/06UTC. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA WITH INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.
24S(HABANA). 09/06UTC. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING OVER AN AREA WITH INCREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.

24S(HABANA). 09/06UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.4 m/s (14.5 kts) Direction :  113.7 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates : NEUTRAL OVER 24H
24S(HABANA). 09/06UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 7.4 m/s (14.5 kts) Direction : 113.7 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates : NEUTRAL OVER 24H

09/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA) ALONG WITH 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. 25S(IMAN) IS DISSIPATED AND WAS REMOVED FROM THE MAP WITH THE SATELLITE BULLETINS DISCONTINUED AT 09/0515UTC.
09/09UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 24S(HABANA) ALONG WITH 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. 25S(IMAN) IS DISSIPATED AND WAS REMOVED FROM THE MAP WITH THE SATELLITE BULLETINS DISCONTINUED AT 09/0515UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 9 Mars 2021 à 13:55