SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA) down to US/Category 1, is still weakening, 13/12utc update


24S(HABANA). 13/13UTC. 9H ANIMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH WEAKENED CYCLONE FROM 24H AGO( DOWN FROM 115KNOTS TO 80KNOTS). DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.


24S(HABANA). 13/13UTC. 9H ANIMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH WEAKENED CYCLONE FROM 24H AGO( DOWN FROM 115KNOTS TO 80KNOTS). DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
24S(HABANA). 13/13UTC. 9H ANIMATION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH WEAKENED CYCLONE FROM 24H AGO( DOWN FROM 115KNOTS TO 80KNOTS). DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
2021 MAR 13 1320UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 13, 2021:
Location: 21.2°S 70.0°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt (150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 973 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING RAPIDLY
LOCATED AT 13/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 700KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF  RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT  10KM/H OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

24S(HABANA). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 13/09UTC. 24S IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE WARNING WHICH WAS CALLING FOR AN INTENSITY OF 85KNOTS AT 13/18UTC.
24S(HABANA). WARNING 19 ISSUED AT 13/09UTC. 24S IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE WARNING WHICH WAS CALLING FOR AN INTENSITY OF 85KNOTS AT 13/18UTC.

24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING  THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK  AFTER 48H. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OVER  THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK IS MODERATE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO  DISSIPATE AFTER 72H DUE TO GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL  CONDITIONS (EXCEPT SST VALUES WHICH REMAIN 27-28C THROUGH 120H)  BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN  SEMICIRCLE THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED 35-40 KNOT  INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 48H. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AFTER 72H DUE TO GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (EXCEPT SST VALUES WHICH REMAIN 27-28C THROUGH 120H) BUT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THEREFORE THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS MAINTAINED 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

24S(HABANA). 13/0849UTC. MICROWAVE (37) STILL DEPICTING GOOD ORGANIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
24S(HABANA). 13/0849UTC. MICROWAVE (37) STILL DEPICTING GOOD ORGANIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

24S(HABANA). 13/1330UTC. DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
24S(HABANA). 13/1330UTC. DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 13 Mars 2021 à 17:55