SOUTH INDIAN: 24S(HABANA), 65knots/US Cat1, forecast to steadily weaken and remain slow-moving over 72hours, 14/09utc update


24S(HABANA). 14/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EIR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


24S(HABANA). 14/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER  MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR  ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EIR IMAGERY  INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH  WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
24S(HABANA). 14/09UTC. 9H ANIMATION. TC 24S IS WEAKENING STEADILY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS REVEALED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EIR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 MAR 14 09UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #24S #HABANA #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 21/UPDATE
As of 09:00 UTC Mar 14, 2021:
Location: 21.9°S 70.3°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 14/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 750KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF  RODRIGUES ISLAND, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT  05KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC. VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27-28C) ARE OFFSETTING THE PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) AND  DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SOMEWHAT, HOWEVER, TC HABANA IS FORECAST TO  CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER INCREASING  VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 24S IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK  STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST  AND A STR TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ERRATICALLY OVER THE  NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS A BROAD STR BUILDS TO THE  SOUTH BY 36H. DUE TO THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND,  INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE INTENSITY IS NOW EXPECTED  TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 96H OR PERHAPS EARLIER. THERE IS A LOW  PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH(35KNOTS)  AFTER 96H AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER WARM SST (27-28C) BUT UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.
WARNING 21 ISSUED AT 14/09UTC. VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27-28C) ARE OFFSETTING THE PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SOMEWHAT, HOWEVER, TC HABANA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 24S IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A STR TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS A BROAD STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH BY 36H. DUE TO THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE INTENSITY IS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 96H OR PERHAPS EARLIER. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE TO GALE-FORCE STRENGTH(35KNOTS) AFTER 96H AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER WARM SST (27-28C) BUT UPPER- LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL.

24S(HABANA).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT  SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD  TRACK AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC  FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE.
24S(HABANA).NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE SHORT-TERM QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION AND WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS MODERATE.

24S(HABANA). 14/0411UTC. ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL  POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES 50-55 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS  AND A SHRINKING GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
24S(HABANA). 14/0411UTC. ASCAT BULLSEYE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND INDICATES 50-55 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS AND A SHRINKING GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

24S(HABANA). 14/0408UTC. MICROWAVE  IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED  CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS, WHICH  REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CORE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12  HOURS.
24S(HABANA). 14/0408UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS, WHICH REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CORE CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

24S(HABANA). 14/0411UTC. METOP-B. Eumetsat. PH.
24S(HABANA). 14/0411UTC. METOP-B. Eumetsat. PH.


24S(HABANA). 14/0045UTC. RSMC/RÉUNION POINTS OUT THAT SMAP READ 73KNOT WINDS AT 14/0047UTC.
24S(HABANA). 14/0045UTC. RSMC/RÉUNION POINTS OUT THAT SMAP READ 73KNOT WINDS AT 14/0047UTC.

14/09UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 24S(HABANA) ALONG WITH 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.
14/09UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 24S(HABANA) ALONG WITH 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS.

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 14 Mars 2021 à 13:50