JTWC Patrick Hoareau
03UTC: 92P is likely to develop next 24h over the Coral Sea - 03/17/2019 - 06:30
TCFA/JTWC Models show strong development once over the Gulf of Carpentaria in apprx 4 days. INVEST 92P As of 00:00 UTC Mar 17, 2019: Location: 10.7°S 146.7°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt (55km/h)...
15UTC: TD 03W set to track very close to Palau shortly after 12hours and dissipate over southern Mindanao in 72hours - 03/16/2019 - 19:27
Warning 7/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TD 03W As of 12:00 UTC Mar 16, 2019: Location: 7.4°N 137.6°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum...
15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) category 1 US may reach top cat2 or even cat3 within 48hours over the open South Indian seas - 03/16/2019 - 18:54
Warning 11/JTWC My own estimate is sustained winds(1mn) at 75kt gusting to 90kt. This system has the potential to intensify rapidly next 24/36hours....
09UTC: tropical depression 03W set to cross Palau within 24hours and dissipate over southern Mindanao in 3 days - 03/16/2019 - 14:06
Warning 6/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TD 03W As of 06:00 UTC Mar 16, 2019: Location: 7.6°N 138.8°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum...
03UTC: Cyclone SAVANNAH(19S) : intensifying in the middle of the South Indian Ocean - 03/16/2019 - 08:09
Warning 9/JTWC Compact system with very good microwave satellite signature whereas the infra-red signature has been lagging behind(with Dvorak at 3.5). The intensity is difficult to assess with...
03UTC: Tropical Depresssion 03W 595km east of Palau forecast to dissipate in 3 days close to southern Mindanao - 03/16/2019 - 07:34
Warning 5/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TD 03W As of 00:00 UTC Mar 16, 2019: Location: 7.7°N 140.0°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum...
21UTC: TD 03W forecast to dissipate near southern Mindanao in 72hours maybe sooner - 03/16/2019 - 01:11
Warning 4/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TD 03W As of 18:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 7.9°N 140.9°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum...
15UTC: TD 03W could be dissipating over southern Mindanao in 2 days and may bring needed rain - 03/15/2019 - 18:22
Warning 3/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TD 03W As of 12:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 7.9°N 141.7°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum...
15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) intensifying over the South Indian possibly reaching Category 1 US ahead of forecast - 03/15/2019 - 17:54
Warning 7/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC SAVANNAH(19S) As of 12:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 14.4°S 94.8°E Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h) Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)...
09UTC: TC IDAI(18S) is over overland now, Maximum intensity reached over water was 110knots, top Category 3 US - 03/15/2019 - 14:46
JMV FILE BELOW FINAL REMARKS(WARNING 24) 150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 34.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07...
09UTC: TD 03W at 1800km east of Mindanao, not much intensification forecast, could dissipate close to Mindanao in 3 days - 03/15/2019 - 14:02
Warning 2/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TD 03W As of 06:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 8.0°N 144.4°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum...
09UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) forecast to reach cateogory 1 US in 2 days over open South Indian waters - 03/15/2019 - 13:02
Warning 6/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC SAVANNAH(19S) As of 06:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 13.8°S 94.8°E Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h) Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)...
South Pacific: 92P is now likely to develop next 24hours, models indicate possible high potential of intensification in 3 to 4 days - 03/15/2019 - 08:32
TCFA issued by the JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ INVEST 92P As of 00:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 8.6°S 151.0°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h) Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)...
03UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) slowly intensifying in the middle of the South Indian Ocean - 03/15/2019 - 07:20
Warning 5/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC SAVANNAH(19S) As of 00:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 13.6°S 95.2°E Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h) Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)...
03UTC: tropical depression 03W has formed, not expected to intensify much, heading for the southern Philippines - 03/15/2019 - 06:47
Warning 1/JTWC TD 03W As of 00:00 UTC Mar 15, 2019: Location: 8.0°N 144.4°E Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h) Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb WDPN31 PGTW 150300...
00UTC: TC IDAI(18S) made landfall over Beira near 22utc. - 03/15/2019 - 05:34
Warning 23/JTWC REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 35.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08...
15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) slowly moving away from the Cocos islands and set to intensify gradually next 4 days - 03/14/2019 - 19:24
Warning 3/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC SAVANNAH(19S) As of 12:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019: Location: 12.8°S 95.8°E Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h) Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)...
15UTC: Cyclone IDAI(18S) life-threatning category 3 US set to make landfall very close to Beira shortly before 12 hours - 03/14/2019 - 18:12
Warning 22/JTWC Dangerous cyclone. In the Beira area people should take shelter immediately and heed the warnings from the local authorities. TC IDAI(18S) As of 12:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019: Location:...
95W: upgraded to high, slight development possible within 24hours - 03/14/2019 - 17:36
TCFA issued by the JTWC The cicrulation is elongated and models do not develop it much but the small-sized system may reach the minimum level required to be numbered by the JTWC. 95W is located...
09UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) tracking apprx 100km to the Cocos islands and intensifying gradually - 03/14/2019 - 13:55
Warning 2/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC SAVANNAH(19S) As of 06:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019: Location: 12.0°S 96.0°E Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h) Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)...
09UTC: Dangerous cyclone IDAI(18S) category 3 US, 245km to Beira, landfall within 50km of Beira in 18hours - 03/14/2019 - 12:42
Warning 21/JTWC NB: UNDER COMPLETION Dangerous cyclone. Important potential threat to the Beira region. People should take this cyclone seriously and heed the warnings from the local authorities....
Western North Pacific: 95W still under watch, located 890km to Guam - 03/14/2019 - 11:43
The area is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours Small-sized system. Only two models develop it modestly. But models might under-estimate the development potential due to the compactness of the...
Busy at JTWC...2 full-blown cyclones and 4 invest areas to monitor - 03/14/2019 - 08:53
Invest 95W and Invest 92P on the chart NB: COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
South Indian: TC SAVANNAH(19S) has formed, tracking close to the Cocos islands and intensifying - 03/14/2019 - 08:23
Warning 1/JTWC https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC SAVANNAH(19S) As of 00:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019: Location: 11.7°S 95.9°E Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h) Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)...
03UTC: dangerous cyclone IDAI(18S) 320km to Beira, set to make landfall within 50km of Beira shorly before 24hours - 03/14/2019 - 07:31
Warning 20/JTWC Dangerous cyclone. Important potential threat to the Beira region. People should take this cyclone seriously and heed the warnings from the local authorities. TC IDAI(18S) As of...
21UTC: TC IDAI(18S) , 385km to Beira, set to make landfall less than 100km to Beira shortly after 24hours - 03/14/2019 - 01:08
Warning 19/JTWC NB: my own estimate is Category 3 US at 18UTC with sustained winds near 105knots(195km/h) gusting to 130knots(240km/h). TC IDAI(18S) As of 18:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019: Location: 19.5°S...
South Indian: 99S is now likely to develop next 24hours - 03/14/2019 - 00:36
Upgraded to high by the JTWC INVEST 99S As of 18:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019: Location: 11.1°S 96.5°E Maximum Winds: 30 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb WTXS21 PGTW 131730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT...
15UTC: cyclone IDAI(18S) category 2 US, 435km to Beira, set to make landfall close to Beira shortly after 24hours - 03/13/2019 - 17:44
Warning 18/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ Microwave signature has been improving recently. I would not be surprised to observe a...
09UTC: Cyclone IDAI(18S) category 2 US, 490km to Beira, slowly approaching, set to make landfall close to Beira in 36hours - 03/13/2019 - 13:17
Warning 17/JTWC https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/ TC IDAI(18S) As of 06:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019: Location: 19.4°S 39.5°E Maximum Winds: 95...
95W: development not ruled out next 24/48hours - 03/13/2019 - 12:12
Small-sized system. Models may under-estimate its potential INVEST 95W As of 06:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019: Location: 5.7°N 153.8°E Maximum Winds: 20 kt Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb ABPW10 PGTW...
Les News
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//12/30/25
12/31/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
2021 STORM YEAR JTWC TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE
12/23/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months
12/06/2025
- PATRICK HOAREAU
Liens utiles
2021 STORM YEAR JTWC TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE
Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months
Major HURRICANE 05E(ERICK) near CAT 4 US making landfall
01W(WUTIP) 1st Typhoon of the 2025 Western North Pacific season
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1406utc
2021 STORM YEAR JTWC TROPICAL ACTIVITY TIMELINE
Difference in tropical cyclone activity across the JTWC AOR between El Niño and La Niña months
Major HURRICANE 05E(ERICK) near CAT 4 US making landfall
01W(WUTIP) 1st Typhoon of the 2025 Western North Pacific season
3 Week Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability//1406utc
MMS/Vacoas: Janvier 2023: le plus pluvieux à MAURICE depuis 20ans! RODRIGUES: proche de la normale...
ILES SOEURS: la REUNION et MAURICE douchées par des pluies localement fortes// Et ce n'est probablement pas fini// 26/19h
MAURITIUS: significant rain at last!
MMS/Vacoas: dry to very dry December 2022 for MAURITIUS and RODRIGUES & the outer islands//Forecast for JAN & FEB 2023
Mid-November: still dry over most of MAURITIUS, RODRIGUES and ST BRANDON, near normal at Agaléga//Forecast for Nov/Dec/Jan 2023
S'identifier
