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15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) slowly moving away from the Cocos islands and set to intensify gradually next 4 days


Warning 3/JTWC


1030UTC
1030UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019:

Location: 12.8°S 95.8°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 95.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141135Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 37GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE
CORE CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). AS TC 19S TRACKS SLOWLY AWAY FROM COCOS ISLAND
(YPCC), SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BACKING WINDS OF 350/15 KNOTS (10-
MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED) GUSTING AS HIGH AS 29 KNOTS. TC 19S IS
LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 19S WILL TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF
205NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LARGELY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, WITH A SPREAD OF 410NM AT
TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 19S SHOULD
INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC

SAVANNAH  MOVING AWAY FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS
SAVANNAH MOVING AWAY FROM THE COCOS ISLANDS

WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC

WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 14 Mars 2019 à 19:24 | Lu 92 fois