00UTC: TC IDAI(18S) made landfall over Beira near 22utc.


Warning 23/JTWC


22UTC
22UTC
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 35.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141631Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 40NM ROUND
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS)
FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A 141631Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS AND AN 141745Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (27-28C) AND LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DESPITE WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 18S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT
DIVERGES SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND AFTER TAU 6.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, DISSIPATING
BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 15 Mars 2019 à 05:34