meteo





03UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) category 2 US intensifying over the open waters of the South Indian Ocean


Warning 13/JTWC


0230UTC
0230UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 17, 2019:

Location: 16.1°S 91.6°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 973 mb

REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INTERMITTENT 11 NM WIDE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 162331Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS JUST BELOW
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS) BASED ON THE
INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS. TC 19S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DISJOINTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. THIS STR WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING THROUGH TAU 120.
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR INFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO START A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 96. BY TAU 120, GALWEM AND UKMET SHOW A TURN SLIGHT EQUATORWARD
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 13/JTWC
WARNING 13/JTWC

 


02UTC
02UTC

00UTC
00UTC

2328UTC
2328UTC

2121UTC
2121UTC

1931UTC
1931UTC

1855UTC
1855UTC

1855UTC
1855UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 107KT AT +12H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 107KT AT +12H

GFS AT 18UTC: 73KT AT +0H
GFS AT 18UTC: 73KT AT +0H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 17 Mars 2019 à 07:20 | Lu 85 fois