meteo





03UTC: Tropical Depresssion 03W 595km east of Palau forecast to dissipate in 3 days close to southern Mindanao


Warning 5/JTWC


https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TD 03W
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 16, 2019:

Location: 7.7°N 140.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160020Z
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. TD 03W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTENT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD MINDANAO. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH 274 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 72,
LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN



0020UTC
0020UTC

 

2355UTC
2355UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 38KT AT +06H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 38KT AT +06H

GFS AT 18UTC: 35KT AT +24H
GFS AT 18UTC: 35KT AT +24H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 16 Mars 2019 à 07:34