meteo





09UTC: TC IDAI(18S) is over overland now, Maximum intensity reached over water was 110knots, top Category 3 US


JMV FILE BELOW


FINAL REMARKS(WARNING 24)
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 34.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 142252Z SSMIS GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKENING
SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED ON
THE SMALL EYE IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KNOTS DUE TO THE DIMINISHING EYEWALL
CONVECTION AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, TC 18S HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. TC 18S HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 BUT DIVERGES
SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER LAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

JMV FILE/JTWC
1819030500 171S 375E  25
1819030506 170S 374E  25
1819030512 168S 372E  30
1819030518 164S 370E  30
1819030600 159S 369E  30
1819030606 155S 368E  30
1819030612 151S 367E  30
1819030618 149S 366E  30
1819030700 149S 364E  25
1819030706 152S 361E  25
1819030712 153S 356E  25
1819030718 153S 352E  20
1819030800 155S 354E  20
1819030806 157S 362E  20
1819030812 161S 371E  20
1819030818 165S 381E  20
1819030900 168S 390E  30
1819030906 170S 402E  35
1819030912 170S 413E  35
1819030918 171S 420E  40
1819031000 172S 424E  45
1819031006 172S 426E  50
1819031012 172S 430E  55
1819031018 172S 432E  70
1819031100 173S 432E  90
1819031106 173S 430E 100
1819031112 176S 427E 105
1819031118 177S 425E 105
1819031200 180S 422E 100
1819031206 183S 417E  90
1819031212 187S 413E  90
1819031218 191S 407E 100
1819031300 193S 402E  95
1819031306 194S 395E  95
1819031312 194S 390E 100
1819031318 195S 385E 105
1819031400 197S 379E 110
1819031406 198S 372E 105
1819031412 199S 363E 100
1819031418 197S 355E  95
1819031500 196S 348E  90
1819031806 195S 341E  75
NNNN

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 15 Mars 2019 à 14:46