South Indian: 99S is now likely to develop next 24hours


Upgraded to high by the JTWC


1830UTC
1830UTC
INVEST 99S
As of 18:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019:

Location: 11.1°S 96.5°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WTXS21 PGTW 131730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 97.2E TO 16.8S 92.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 96.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 99.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 96.8E, APPROXIMATELY 87
NM NORTH OF COCO ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131433Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND EXPANSIVE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 99S IS BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 99S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY
WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141730Z.
//
NNNN

TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC

TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC

1432UTC
1432UTC

12UTC
12UTC

12UTC
12UTC

12UTC
12UTC

12UTC
12UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 14 Mars 2019 à 00:36