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15UTC: Cyclone IDAI(18S) life-threatning category 3 US set to make landfall very close to Beira shortly before 12 hours


Warning 22/JTWC


Dangerous cyclone. In the Beira area people should take shelter immediately and heed the warnings from the local authorities.
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019:

Location: 19.9°S 36.3°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (230km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY 3 US

REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 35.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 141129Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 BUT
DIVERGES AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVERLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 12, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN LESS THAN 12H
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN LESS THAN 12H

 

WARNING 22/JTWC
WARNING 22/JTWC



13UTC
13UTC



12UTC
12UTC

 

1020UTC
1020UTC

0644UTC
0644UTC




Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 14 Mars 2019 à 18:12