03UTC: dangerous cyclone IDAI(18S) 320km to Beira, set to make landfall within 50km of Beira shorly before 24hours


Warning 20/JTWC


Dangerous cyclone. Important potential threat to the Beira region. People should take this cyclone seriously and heed the warnings from the local authorities.
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 14, 2019:

Location: 19.7°S 37.9°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
CATEGORY 3 US

REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 37.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM WITH A BROAD (25-30NM) EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE MSI
LOOP AND LINES UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 132318Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE
LOW SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.0 (102-115KTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW, RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS A 132221Z SATCON OF 109KT AND A
140045Z ADT OF 102KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW (05-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED
BY THE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS NOW BECOMING DETACHED. FURTHERMORE, DRY
AIR IS FLOWING INTO TC 18S FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA, FURTHER
DIMINSHING ITS DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN
TC 18S AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS; AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL PAST TAU
24, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WARNING 20/JTWC
WARNING 20/JTWC

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 24HOURS
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA SHORTLY BEFORE 24HOURS

WARNING 20/JTWC
WARNING 20/JTWC


02UTC
02UTC

0225UTC
0225UTC

0221UTC
0221UTC

 

0158UTC
0158UTC

2320UTC
2320UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 109KT AT +18H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 109KT AT +18H

GFS AT 18UTC: 92KT AT +0H
GFS AT 18UTC: 92KT AT +0H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 14 Mars 2019 à 07:31